Political scientist, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor of the Department of Advertising and Public Relations at MGIMO Valery Solovey wrote on his Facebook page that he was leaving the university for political reasons: "Personal and public. Today I submitted an application for resignation of my own free will from MGIMO, where I worked for 11 years. For political reasons, the institute no longer wants to have anything to do with me. I understand this reluctance. And I will be grateful if in the future I will in no way be associated with MGIMO... About my plans. a very large European publishing house I will start writing a book, about the topic of which I will modestly keep silent. I will not return to teaching. Russia enters an era of drastic changes and I intend to take the most active part in them. Stay tuned".

Friends and associates burst into words of support. Head of the "Party of Change" Dmitry Gudkov:"I wish you good luck and condolences to the students!"

Permanent browser "Echo of Moscow" Ksenia Larina: "It had to happen, you knew. And I'm sure that you had no doubts about the choice of the path."

Biblical modernist Andrey Desnitsky:"Andrei Zubov [the infamous Vlasov professor - Note] ceased to be needed by MGIMO five years ago, Valery Solovey only now. Looking at the foreign policy of the Russian Federation, you understand: really, why are they there?"

Former member of the Central Council DPNI* (later - a liberal, a hater of "Vatans" and the Russian World) Alexey "Yor" Mikhailov: "Milestone, yes. I wish you success and development, further creative and political self-realization! Well," Stay with us ")))".

Left

Israeli ultra-Zionist Avigdor Eskin: "This is a take-off. In how many years will we see Professor Nightingale at the head of MGIMO? In 3 years? In 5 years?"

Opposition actress Elena Koreneva: "Of course. Let's wait for the book!".

Poetess and coordinator of the "Republican Alternative" movement Alina Vitukhnovskaya:"Good luck!".

"Valery Dmitrievich's contract ended, and he made this independent decision - to leave of his own free will. What political reasons are meant - it makes sense to check with him," they explained RBC in the press service of MGIMO.

Nightingale himself told the BBC Russian Service that the university "has the most direct relationship" to his dismissal, while he was given to understand that the desire to stop cooperation comes "from some outside party": "I was told that for political reasons the institute considers it highly undesirable for me to work in. In particular, I was accused of I'm subversive, doing anti-state propaganda. This style of wording makes you remember the Soviet past." In an interview with MK, he noted that he "begins a new, very important stage in life."

Did the accusation of anti-state activity arise from scratch? What is the "epoch of drastic changes" mentioned by Nightingale? He considers the events around him to be its beginning. "Golunov case". A couple of days ago in an interview with an opposition portal "Moscow activist" the professor said: "Deserve everything, from my point of view, respect those people who took to the streets on June 12. What we are seeing right now is is the formation of massive new rights. This is somewhat similar to what happened in 2011 year, well, we will not take 2012, there the dynamics was already high. That after all, a considerable group of people are ready to leave, despite the fact that they are trying to bring down the dynamics on this, despite the fact that these people are being pressured. In other words, society is changing right before our eyes. The readiness for mobilization is much greater than six months ago. Much more. She will grow. But in order for this readiness to turn into something effective, it is necessary to practice, that is, to take to the streets. Willingness to take risks will increase when people see something new. As soon as we feel that there are several tens of thousands of us, and moreover, when these several tens of thousands behave a little more organized, and there are chances for this, that is, some kind of organizing principle appears, then the behavior of these people will be different. Not immediately, but gradually, such three or four mass actions will be required in order for people to start behaving differently, and the flip side is for the police to become afraid of them.

I am talking about this quite thoroughly: there are not many police, riot police in Moscow. There really aren't many, you know? And as soon as it hits the streets 25-30 thousand people, which ready to resist,

who have some kind of organizing principle, the situation will change ...

(I.: Isn't this a frank call for a Maidan?)

Already next year, not in the first half, but in the second, towards the end, we will see that regional authorities will lend support to local protesters so that in this way put pressure on Moscow.

(I.R.: Oligarchic Maidan?)

That's what we observed at the turn of the eighties and nineties, in 1991 for sure. And this is a practice that will be repeated, there will be nothing, personally for me, unexpected in this. All things have happened before. It's just that history has reached them a second time. We are now figuratively at the end of 1989. Feelings."

The Nightingale spoke about the same thing at a recent public debate initiated by libertarian Mikhail Svetov:

“Now a lot has begun to change. Even the beaten-killed people from the opposition felt something else in the air. autumn you will see it when a group of people who are ready to do something appears, and it will appeal to everyone.

Because it is clear what to do, how to do, what to say, what to demand.

For the first time since 2012, and even for the first time since 1990 there was a desire for change that had not been there for 30 years, and there was a willingness to sacrifice something for the sake of these changes. Society in Russia is increasingly ready for violence".

He predicts revolution, longs for "fire", which will lead to "re-establishment of Russia". He is not at all satisfied, in the first place, "aggressive foreign policy".

Seems to be, Nightingale intends to propose his own candidacy for the role of the "organizing principle" of the Russian Maidan.

But still afraid of the security forces:“I assure you that there are “enthusiasts” calling for tougher and more massive measures. They're getting ready for it. Lists of those who need to be taken into custody without charge, they were ready by 2012. And they fill up. There are about 1.5-2 thousand such people in Moscow. It is believed that if these people are interned, then it will be possible to decapitate any political movement. And these "enthusiasts" complain that there is no hard line. Putin, if you like, is actually holding them back. I'm not being ironic at all. There are people who are ready to act more decisively and tougher."

It is worth recalling the main milestones in the biography of Valery Dmitrievich. He was born on 08/19/1960 in the city of Happiness, Voroshilovgrad region, Ukrainian SSR, childhood spent on Western Ukraine.

Graduated from the history department of Moscow State University. M. V. Lomonosov, in 1983-93 he was a graduate student and employee of the Institute of History of the USSR of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR, in perestroika times he defended his thesis on the topic "The role of the Institute of Red Professors in the development of Soviet historical science and the development of problems of national history". Since 1993 he has worked as one of the leading experts "Gorbachev-Fund".

Prepared several reports for international organizations. Passed in parallel internship at the London School of Economics and Political Science, worked there as a visiting researcher.

In 2005 he defended his doctoral dissertation on the topic " "The Russian question" and its influence on the domestic and foreign policy of Russia (the beginning of the 18th - the beginning of the 21st centuries)" and began to intensively establish contacts with part nationalists, claiming status national ideologue, "anti-imperialism", "progressive, democratic national liberalism without anti-Semitism and Orthodoxy".

Seriously became close to DPNI * Alexandra Belova/Potkina and Russian social movement Konstantin Krylov.

Spotted on "Russian marches" and other events, despite the dissatisfaction of a number of nationalists with the influence "A Jew from the Gorbachev Foundation."

Since 2007, he worked at the Department of Advertising and Public Relations of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation (taught the courses "PR and Advertising in Politics", "Fundamentals of Information Warfare and Media Manipulation", "Fundamentals of State Policy in the Information Sphere"). Permanent, welcome guest "Echo of Moscow", "Radio Liberty", "Rain" and other hostile sites.

Actively participated in swamp events; rumor has it that he convinced the most frostbitten wrestlers to storm the State Duma.

Then he wrote on the site APN: "A revolution has begun in Russia ... As world experience shows, three conditions are necessary for the victory of the revolution. Firstly, the high morale of the revolutionaries and the progressive weakening of the ability of the authorities to resist the revolutionary onslaught. We are already seeing this. The dynamics of mass protest in Moscow and in in other cities, while the morale and physical condition of the police and riot police are deteriorating.In a few days, the police will refuse to obey orders simply because she has no physical strength left.

At the same time, the violence against the revolutionaries draws new people into the mass actions and increases the scale of the protest. Even the arrest of a number of street leaders is not able to reduce the intensity of the movement. Exactly the opposite, violence emanating from a morally illegitimate government only strengthens the will to win. The second condition for the victory of the revolution is the alliance of a part of the elite with the insurgent people. The elite are confused. Some of its groups are already ready to lend a hand to the revolution, but are afraid of making the wrong move. However, the first swallow appeared. State Duma Deputy, Deputy Chairman of the Security Committee Gennady Gudko in

Not only openly sided with the rebellious people, but also took an active part in the protest action on December 6. This is not only a courageous, but also a wise step. The printed press is ALREADY on the side of the revolution.

Soon they will talk about the revolution and official TV channels: first neutral, then sympathetic. And it will be a sign that the elite have turned their backs on their long-loathed "national leader".

The third condition and, at the same time, the culmination of the revolution is a symbolic gesture that marks its victory. As a rule, this is the capture of some building associated with the former regime. In France there was an assault on the Bastille, in Russia in October 1917 - the capture of the Winter Palace.

In January 2012 Years Nightingale headed working group on the creation of the opposition nationalist party "New Force"(evil tongues spoke about 2 million dollars received from the powerful five-columns for the formation of such a structure), on October 6, 2012, at the founding congress, he was elected chairman.

Many prominent members of the New Force soon went to Ukraine to participate in the Euromaidan and the genocide of the Russian population;

let's name the head of the Belgorod branch of the National Assembly Romana Strigunkova(fan of Adolf Hitler and ex-blogger with the nickname Hitlerolog, leader of the dwarf regional Russian National Socialist Movement, leader of the "Russian Legion" at the Kiev "Euromaidan"),

Deputy Chairman of the Murmansk branch of the National Assembly Alexandra "Pomora-88" Valova

(who went from the Murmansk Hitlerite skin party to the Azov punitive battalion **) or, for example, an activist of the National Assembly, a former film actor Anatoly Pashinin(eventually called for terrorist attacks on the territory of the Russian Federation and joined the 8th separate battalion "Aratta" of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army ** Dmitry Yarosh), who enthusiastically declared: "Valery Solovey is the chairman of our New Force party. I listened to all his interviews I'm proud of it, I've read all of his work!".

In March 2016, Nightingale told reporters that the party was "frozen due to the fact that we were threatened with reprisals."

On November 29, 2017, he joined the campaign headquarters of a candidate for the post of President of the Russian Federation, business ombudsman, leader of the right-liberal Party of Growth Boris Titov. Supervised in this headquarters ideology, performed the functions of a key political strategist. He was a confidant of Titov, represented him at the election debates.

Author of the books "Russian History: A New Reading", "The Meaning, Logic and Form of Russian Revolutions", "The Blood and Soil of Russian History", "The Failed Revolution. The Historical Meanings of Russian Nationalism" (co-authored by sister Tatiana Solovey), "Absolute Weapon. Fundamentals psychological warfare and media manipulation", "Revolution! Fundamentals of revolutionary struggle in the modern era", more than two thousand newspaper notes and Internet publications.

From an interview with a liberal portal Znak.com(March 2016):

"The Overton Window is a propaganda myth. And this concept itself is conspiratorial in nature: they say that there is a group of people who are planning a decades-long strategy to corrupt society. Nothing like this has ever happened anywhere in history and cannot be. All changes in the history of mankind occur spontaneously.

This does not mean that there is necessarily some kind of conspiracy behind them.... Yes, what was anti-norm 100-200 years ago suddenly becomes acceptable today. But this is a natural process, there is no need to see here the “hairy paw of the Antichrist”, who came into this world to arrange Armageddon through homosexual marriages or something else ... I believe that the separation of Russia and Ukraine was a natural process. It started not two years ago, but in the early 1990s. And even then, many analysts said that Ukraine will inevitably drift towards the West. Again, this is a completely natural process. And after the annexation of Crimea to Russia, the war in the Donbass, the point of no return has been passed. Now already Ukraine will definitely never be a fraternal state with Russia. Anti-Moscow and anti-Russian sentiments will henceforth be the cornerstone for the formation national self-consciousness of Ukrainians. This question can be closed... Donbass in any situation doomed to be "black hole» on the geopolitical map. It will be a region where crime, corruption, economic decline will reign - a kind of European Somalia. There is no point in modernizing something there, because no one really needs Donbass ... Russia will never http://zavtra.ru/events/pochemu_professora_solov_ya_ne_poprosili_iz_mgimo_gorazdo_ran_she is to be an empire. This was clear even in the 1990s."

Professor Nightingale regularly mentions some future decision of the Kremlin, which will inevitably lead to changes.

The activities of a statesman and politician are always judged on the basis of his finale. If the final was successful, then all his previous activities are painted in positive tones. If his final was not successful, not successful, then all his previous activities are also subjected to negative coverage. President Putin's final is yet to come, although his era is certainly coming to an end.

"I believe that in general his activities will be assessed negatively," says Valery Solovey, political scientist, historian, professor at MGIMO.

In the history of Russia, no leader has been in more favorable conditions than Vladimir Putin. Russia had no external enemies, the attitude of the West, despite all the conflicts, was generally benevolent. There were high oil prices, which favorably affected the country's budget. Society welcomed Putin, after the Yeltsin era it seemed that this was the beginning of the country's revival. And for the first seven to ten years, Putin really justified the credit of society's trust, the country's economy grew and the incomes of the population grew.

And then everything began to change when Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev conceived and carried out a reshuffle on the exchange of posts.

"And people were offended, they considered it a deception. In fact, it was a deception," says Valery Solovey.

People, no matter what country they live in, always experience psychological fatigue from the ruler, and this fatigue sets in if the ruler rules for a long time, more than ten years. Therefore, if Putin left on time, he would forever remain in history as the greatest ruler who raised Russia from its knees. And today, society evaluates the president from the point of view of the deterioration of their social position. The crisis in the country has been going on for the sixth year in a row, and for the sixth year in a row, the incomes of the country's citizens have been declining. People think with their pocket and how they will feed their children. It could have been tolerated for two years, when the president said in 2014 that you could be patient for two years, and then everything would be fine. And of course people endured. But six years in a row is too much. The fact that in any country in the world they will not keep a government that cannot cope with the crisis causes tremendous irritation in society.

"And what about in Russia? The president, having been re-elected, appoints the same government headed by the same prime minister named Medvedev, who is openly despised in the country. This is not a secret for anyone. What feelings should this cause in our people," says Valery Solovey.

And then take it and get it - here's the pension reform. This is a mockery of the people and common sense. In Russia, men in many regions do not live past the age of sixty-five. What is it? The president's rating has been falling in recent years, despite a short-term increase in popularity due to the return of Crimea. The people have already had a very large negative experience in recent years, and in the mass consciousness of people, the figure of Putin will be assessed more and more negatively.

"From the point of view of history, I say this as a historian, he will be assessed as a person who missed a unique historical chance to ensure the rapid development of Russia. Who exchanged the development of Russia, the growth of the welfare of the people for the growth of the welfare of his friends," says Valery Solovey.

In the early 2000s, as energy prices rose, the president missed an opportunity to reform the economy. His liberal entourage told him: why, look at oil prices and they will rise. Why should we develop our own industry, we will buy everything. We have enough money for everything and for stealing too. It was with such a strange conviction that the president and his entourage lived. Russia will continue to sell raw materials for a long time to come, and there is no getting around this. The question is how and where the proceeds from this are invested, who manages them.

“We will spend them on the Rotenbergs to build luxurious palaces for themselves and buy yachts, the largest in the world. 15 years ago, these people walked around St. Petersburg in sports trousers and traded small consumer goods in kiosks,” says Valery Solovey.

But how many destitute old people we have in our country, how many unfortunate people. The whole world collects money in the country for the treatment of children abroad, since the state does not have the funds for this. Here's what to spend money on. If you say that people are our main value, let's invest them in making life at least a little better and easier.

https://www.site/2016-03-25/politolog_valeriy_solovey_my_pered_ochen_sereznymi_politicheskimi_peremenami

“After the elections, serious restrictions will be imposed on the exit of citizens from the country”

Political scientist Valery Solovey: we are in front of very serious political changes

Historian, political analyst, publicist Valery Solovey published a new book - “Absolute Weapon. Fundamentals of psychological warfare and media manipulation. Why do Russians lend themselves so easily to propaganda and how to “decode” them? Based on this, how will domestic political processes develop in the near future? What is the likely outcome of the election? Will our ties with the outside world change?

“In the manipulation of consciousness, Western democracies, Nazis and Soviets went the same way”

— Valery Dmitrievich, readers are wondering why you wrote another book on a question that has already been considered by dozens of other authors? For example, at one time the book by Sergei Kara-Murza "Manipulation of Consciousness" was popular. What mistakes and shortcomings do you see in it?

— In Russia, there is not a single worthy book that would talk about propaganda and media manipulation. Not a single one - I emphasize! The well-known book by Kara-Murza became so popular only because it was the first in Russia on this topic. But in its methodological basis and content, it is frankly mediocre. Further, my book, for the first time in the literature, connects cognitive psychology with long-known stories about the methods, techniques and techniques of propaganda. So far, there has been no such analysis and generalization in the literature on this topic. Meanwhile, cognitivist psychology is extremely important because it explains why people are susceptible to propaganda and why propaganda is inevitable. As long as there is humanity, there will be propaganda. And, finally, it must be said that I covered the topic of propaganda with actual examples that are well understood by readers. The result was a book that was even noted by the leaders of the Russian propaganda machine. As my friends told me, they said about her: "The only worthwhile book in Russian on this topic." True, they added: “But it would be better if such a book did not come out at all.” I think this is a very high rating. In addition, the first edition was sold out in three weeks. Now the second one is coming out. Here is my answer to why I wrote this book.

Valery Solovey: “The first thing they pay attention to is hair. If a person is bald - on the eyes. A man needs to make sure he has good teeth and shoes.” from the personal archive of Valery Solovyov

- You once said that the concept of the Overton Window, which came from the West, revealing the secret mechanisms of the loosening of social norms, is nothing more than a pseudo-theory. Why?

“The Overton Window is a propaganda myth. And this concept itself is conspiratorial in nature: they say, there is a group of people who are planning a decades-long strategy to corrupt society. Never and nowhere in history has there been anything like it and cannot be, due to the imperfection of human nature. I suggest that a person who adheres to the concept of the Overton Window plan his life for at least a month and live according to his plan. Let's see what happens. Love for this kind of conspiracy is characteristic of those who are not even able to manage their own lives, let alone manage anything at all.

- In our country, the Overton Window is remembered when they point to problems with morality. Patriarch Kirill said so: "Pedophilia will be legalized for homosexuality."

- All changes in the history of mankind occur spontaneously. This does not mean that there is certainly some kind of conspiracy behind them and the legalization of homosexual marriages in some European countries will certainly lead to the legalization of pedophilia. In addition, in one case we are talking about adults who do something voluntarily, and in the other about minors who have parents, and the legalization of pedophilia is possible only through violation of human rights and violence. Therefore, yes, what was an anti-norm 100-200 years ago suddenly becomes acceptable today. But this is a natural process, there is no need to see here the “hairy paw of the Antichrist”, who came into this world to arrange Armageddon through homosexual marriages or something else.

At the same time, I want to say that in the same way, in a natural way, a reaction can occur. I do not at all rule out the possibility that European society may swing back towards conservative values. And not because a group of conspirators or Kremlin agents in Europe will be operating somewhere, but simply because the society decides enough is enough, they have played enough, you need to think about self-preservation.

“The leaders of the Russian propaganda machine said: “The only worthwhile book in Russian on this topic. But it would be better if it did not come out””pycode.ru

- Speaking of the manipulation of consciousness in our country, from what historical period can they be counted? Since the time of the Bolsheviks or even earlier?

- If we talk about manipulation in general, then from the moment people learned to speak. But if we are talking about mass manipulation, then from the moment the channels of mass communication appeared. The starting point of mass deception can be considered the emergence of the media. This, of course, newspapers, radio, television. And in this sense, all more or less developed countries followed the same path, that Western democracies - the USA, Great Britain, and so on, that Nazi Germany, that Soviet Russia. Propaganda occurs in all countries without exception.

Another thing is the quality of propaganda, sophistication, the presence of pluralism. In the same USA, there are media holdings owned by various independent owners. Therefore, different propaganda campaigns balance each other and during the electoral "marathons" citizens have the freedom of choice. Well, or the illusion of freedom of choice. That is, where there is pluralism, propaganda is always more subtle and sophisticated.

— In one of your interviews, you said that the BBC is one of the most objective English-speaking television companies. Do you still think so?

— This company confirms such a reputation with its many years of work. All TV companies allow blunders, they are all dependent in one way or another, but the BBC suffers from this least of all.

“Russia managed to create the best propaganda machine”

- And our propaganda is more advanced and stupid?

“I wouldn't say so. Russia has managed to create, by far, the best propaganda machine. But it is focused exclusively on its own population, since propaganda outside was not very successful. At least in the European area. Our propaganda is carried out by very professional people. These people, in particular, learned from the information failure of the summer of 2008. Remember the war for South Ossetia, which Russia won militarily but, by all accounts, lost in terms of information and propaganda? Since 2014, we have seen that the propaganda errors of 2008 are no longer there.

But we must understand that any propaganda has its limits. Russian propaganda hit its limits at the turn of 2015-16. And we will gradually observe its extinction. Or, as they often say today, the refrigerator will gradually begin to win over the TV. I think that at the turn of 2016-17, its strength will weaken quite seriously.

- Today's diligent resuscitation of the cult of Stalin, for example, casts doubts ...

“You don't have to fight it. This will collapse on its own once the regime is weakened. Stalin in the current realities is nothing more than a propaganda symbol that has no real content and materializing power under it. Those who call on us to return Stalin believe that he should return only for their neighbors, but not for themselves. When it comes to selfish interests, none of these screaming Stalinists is ready to sacrifice anything. So the cult of Stalin is a fiction. It's just that the authorities are exploiting the era of Stalin in order to legitimize some of their repressive measures. But not more. There is a rule of complex social systems. It says that a return to the past, whoever wants it, is impossible.

RIA Novosti / Evgeny Biyatov

- But to Stalin, as if bewitched, with flowers go "both old and young." Can you tell us about the methods of decoding personal and social consciousness?

- Turn on common sense, judge people by their deeds, read more, do not watch TV at all, or no more than 20 minutes a day. If you are called to vote for a party that promised something 5-10 years ago and has not done anything by the current date, do not vote for it in any case. The deeds speak for themselves.

- And then, in the future, it is necessary to lustrate the employees of the propaganda media? What they do - crimes? Do they have to be held accountable?

- It is known that the Nuremberg Trials equated propaganda with a crime against humanity. Therefore, in a sense, this question can be answered in the affirmative. As for lustration, I do not rule it out, but it is too early to say who will be affected.

“The masses will come out, but this will not lead to civil war and the collapse of the state”

- This year, for the first time in a long time, the elections of half of the State Duma will be held in single-member districts. Can we expect that the pre-election campaign will become more diverse, and new faces will come to the Duma, enliven it, make it a "place for discussion"?

“Despite the fact that single-mandate constituencies have been returned, I think that all the same, the most dangerous ones for the preservation of the regime will simply not be allowed to participate in the elections. Even at the stage of registration, candidates go through a "sieve" that allows you to weed out those who are disloyal to the regime. And even if some of the undesirables are admitted to the elections, they will experience the most severe pressure and generally regret that they went. The elections will give the impression of competition, but not the competition itself, the message will be the same for everyone, just the style is different. Therefore, the Duma itself as a whole will retain its decorative character.

RIA Novosti/Alexander Utkin

- Do you see in the country, in principle, any real opposition to the regime, capable of leading the people?

There is an opposition in Russia that the regime allows to exist. Because any real opposition to them is destroyed in the literal and figurative sense. But even the weak opposition is afraid of the regime.

- In this case, the reader asks, how do you, a specialist in media manipulation, assess the chances of Putin's leadership to formalize and legitimize in the eyes of the population the transformation of Russia into a semi-closed, anti-democratic autocracy similar to the countries of Central Asia?

- Indeed, today the ruling group in Russia is concerned with the question of how to maintain its dominance until 2035-40. At least, I have heard arguments on this subject from people close to the so-called "elite". But I believe that in the next couple of years we will see the limit of the possibilities of this mode. I agree that its representatives will try to legitimize their power. But, one way or another, they will soon run out of opportunities for this.

— And what about “physical” measures, such as closing borders?

- After the elections to the State Duma this year, serious restrictions will most likely be introduced on the exit of Russian citizens from the country.

Do you mean the law on exit visas?

- No, it's unlikely. Unspoken recommendations will be given to officials at all levels and their families not to leave the country. And if the officials are so seriously infringed, they will not tolerate any part of society remaining free in the country. In Russia, if serfdom is introduced, it applies to all classes. This is a historical tradition. According to my information, a tourist tax will be introduced, which will cut off the opportunity for many categories of citizens to travel abroad.

fastpic.ru

- Will this be a factor that, on the contrary, will bring the collapse of the regime closer? After all, this step will affect not only the "creakles", but also the townsfolk, who used to allow themselves to rest in decent hotels in Turkey, Egypt, Greece, Tunisia and so on for relatively little money.

— You are right, regimes are not collapsing because of opposition and external enemies. They collapse because of the stupidity of the managers. And sooner or later these stupidities begin to acquire a malignant character. If you look at the history of fallen regimes, you get the impression that those who ruled them, as if deliberately led the matter to collapse. In general, regarding any political processes in Russia, there is an axiom that the dynamics of the masses is unpredictable. And you can never know in advance what seemingly insignificant things can lead to major political shifts.

- Another reader's question is appropriate here: “What scenario is the most possible in Russia? The first is that Shoigu (or another conservative) becomes president, punitive and protective measures are tightened, that is, the transition to the USSR No. 2. The second is the Libyan scenario. The third is the Rose Revolution scenario. Fourth, peaceful evolution towards European democracy. Or the fifth, the collapse of the Russian Federation into many small states as a result of the current colonial pseudo-federal system?”

- What I definitely do not expect is the collapse of Russia. When they say this to me, I clearly understand that this is pure trade in fear. I believe that Russia is facing very serious political changes. They will happen in the not so distant medium term and will change our political landscape beyond recognition. These changes will be predominantly peaceful. And then we will move not very clear where. This will depend on the outcome of the change.

- In the early 1990s, the masses also quite peacefully took to the streets and said: "We can't live like this anymore."

Yes, they will come out. And not for political reasons, but for socio-economic ones. I think that this is very likely, especially in large cities. But this will not lead to civil war or to the collapse of the state. I do not believe in this.

RIA Novosti/Alexey Danichev

“But when the protest is peaceful, it is easy to suppress it. No wonder a person asks you a question about Shoigu and the tightening of punitive and protective measures.

- The authorities are constantly moving in this direction, but do not exaggerate the loyalty of the repressive apparatus. She is not at all what she seems. In a critical situation, they simply can not follow the order and step back.

- Not the collapse of the country, but the disappearance of some regions, for example, the North Caucasus - is this possible?

— I don't think these republics want to leave Russia. In fact, they are good at it. Where should they go? Without it, they won't survive at all. Therefore, they will bargain, trying to impose their conditions. But as a result of political changes, I think Moscow's policy towards these republics will become more balanced and meaningful. Personally, I don't think it's right to pay huge sums of money for political loyalty. It's corrupting. Yes, and already corrupted.

“Our politicians use neo-Eurasianism and religion as long as it suits them”

- Do we still have sane nationalist, or rather national-democratic forces after the Ukrainian events?

- As for organized nationalism, it drags out a miserable existence. He is not allowed to raise his head, many leaders, like Belov, are behind bars. Others, like Demushkin, understand that if they are active, they will follow Belov. But as for nationalism in general as a kind of public mood, it certainly exists. And these sentiments will soon be politically in demand.

Are you going to revive your national-democratic New Force party when times are more favorable for public politics?

- It is frozen due to the fact that we were threatened with reprisals. But in general, I believe that both today and in the future the party format is unpromising. I think that other formats will be in demand.

RIA Novosti/Yuri Ivanov

- What are the prospects for the coming to power of members of the "January 25 Committee" Igor Strelkov and other "Novorossov"?

- There are different people in this organization: nationalists, and Soviet "imperials", and Orthodox monarchists. I do not see that this organization has any prospects. But some, some of its leaders, have. And I do not rule out that 2-3 of them will be able to play a role in the coming political changes that we talked about above.

- In general, do Russians have a chance to organize themselves following the example of Israel or Japan, that is, to create a national state? This is a question from one of our readers.

- Of course, there is such a chance, because the Russians feel like a single people. It is Russians, not Russians. So Russia is in fact, in fact, a nation state, it remains only to formalize the superstructure - the laws - in accordance with this reality and change the policy so that it coincides with the interests of the national majority.

Do you think Russians have a national identity these days?

— Yes, it exists, it manifests itself in everyday life. It's just that Russians are afraid to talk about it out loud. At least two-thirds of Russians feel their national consciousness. Just do not confuse real Russians and "literary" - national costumes, cuisine, tools, something else. It's just lubok. The nation-state is a modern state, not an archaism.

“Moscow's policy towards these republics will become more balanced. Paying huge amounts of money for political loyalty is wrong.” RIA Novosti/Said Tsarnaev

— The overwhelming majority of today's "Russian nationalists" are Orthodox activists and are convinced that the Russian national state must stand on the foundation of Orthodoxy, there is no way without it. Personally, this format of the nation-state is unpleasant to me. A multinational and cosmopolitan society is better, but secular and with freedom of worldview, including religious, choice.

- Your response is appropriate. But, firstly, if you are afraid, then it is better not to do anything at all, not even to leave the house. There is always a risk when doing something. And, secondly, the results of this process will depend on those who are at the head of it. Because there is a general sociological pattern: those at the bottom copy those at the top. And if the elite sets itself clear goals that are understandable and beneficial to the national majority, nothing terrible will happen.

Let's say you say: we want to provide affordable housing to the national majority in order to reverse the demographic situation. The bottoms answer: “Great! We want!” This is what the nation state is. But if someone, instead of clear and understandable goals, uses myths like “Stalinism” and says that it is in it that the primordially Russian character and behavior of those in power are concentrated, then this is no longer a national state. This is completely different.

- And the “neo-Eurasianism”, which dominates the semi-official ideology of the ruling group, is this serious? What do you think - do they really believe in it or use it, like the same notorious "Stalinism"?

- To believe or not to believe - such a question in politics is not worth it. They find it convenient. It gives some ideological justification for what they do. They use it as long as it suits them. And religion, by the way, too. And if suddenly the weather vane of moods in society swings in the other direction, they will become Russian nationalists or even Muslims. Therefore, do not focus too much on this issue.

“Russia made no effort to keep Ukraine in the orbit of its influence”

— Since we mentioned neo-Eurasianism, let's finish our conversation with a series of questions about Ukraine: it is, perhaps, the main victim of the ideology of "neo-Eurasianism", or "Russian world".

One of our readers recalls that Brzezinski is credited with saying: "Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire; with Ukraine, Russia automatically turns into an empire." That is, I would like to know your opinion: is the “shaggy paw of American imperialism” visible in the break in relations between Russia and Ukraine?

— I believe that the separation of Russia and Ukraine was a natural process. It began not two years ago, but in the early 1990s. And even then, many analysts said that Ukraine would inevitably drift towards the West. Moreover, Russia did not make any special efforts to keep Ukraine in the orbit of its influence. Or, at least, did not make the efforts that would be effective. I do not mean the supply of gas at reduced prices, but cultural and intellectual levers of influence. They were not used, and no one cared about that. So, I repeat, this is quite a natural process.

And after the annexation of Crimea to Russia, the war in the Donbass, the point of no return has been passed. Now Ukraine will definitely never be a fraternal state with Russia. At the same time, I do not think that the West will accept Ukraine either. Most likely, she will drag out a poor existence. But this does not mean that she will come to bow to Moscow. Anti-Moscow and anti-Russian sentiments will henceforth be the cornerstone for the formation of the national self-consciousness of Ukrainians. Here the question can be closed.

RIA Novosti/Andrey Stenin

“So Russia will never be an empire again?”

Well, this was understandable even in the 1990s, and not only in connection with Brzezinski's geopolitical views. And now we are at the point of post-Soviet existence. Rather, we are stuck there and do not develop anywhere. True, this inertia has already exhausted itself. Therefore political changes are inevitable.

- Is there an opportunity in the future to compromise on the “Crimean issue” in order to get rid of the sanctions?

“I think there is a chance to freeze this problem and ensure the de facto recognition of Crimea. As for the Crimean Tatars, there are not very many of them. And they can be offered such a formula, on the basis of which they would understand that it is better to live in the world. If they realize that there is no other alternative for them, then they will reconcile. This is quite enough. De jure recognition of Crimea as Russian territory depends on the position of Ukraine. If we talk about sanctions against Russia, then there are those imposed for Crimea, and there are those for Donbass. And these are different sanctions. And the sanctions for Crimea are far from being the most sensitive.

- What, in your opinion, awaits Ukraine in general and Donbass in particular?

— The fate of Ukraine depends on the quality of its elite. If an elite appears there, capable of leading the country onto new tracks of development, then everything will be fine with it. I don't think it will break up or become a federation. But, one way or another, he will remain the "sick man of Europe."

The fate of Donbass is terrible. In any situation, he is doomed to be a kind of "black hole" on the geopolitical map. Most likely, it will turn out to be a peaceful territory, but de facto not part of Ukraine, nor part of Russia. It will be a region where crime, corruption, economic decline will reign - a kind of European Somalia. There is no point in modernizing something there, because no one really needs the Donbass. For Ukraine and for Russia, this is a stone on their feet. But people get used to everything. I have friends and relatives who live there, have already adapted to this lifestyle and do not want to leave.

RIA Novosti/Dan Levy

Reference

Valery Solovey was born in 1960. After graduating from the Faculty of History of Moscow State University, he worked at the Academy of Sciences, the Gorbachev Foundation. He completed an internship at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Doctor of Historical Sciences (dissertation topic - "The Russian Question" and its influence on the domestic and foreign policy of Russia). Currently, he is a professor at MGIMO, head of the department of public relations, author of a course of lectures on the manipulation of public consciousness.

Creative editor of the site Dmitry Bykov talked with the famous Russian political scientist Valery Soloviev.

Valery Solovey - professor, head. MGIMO department and the most famous Russian political scientist today. As he likes to say, "for two simple reasons." First, his predictions are confirmed nine times out of ten. This is because, he explains, he has good informants. Personally, it seems to me that informants have nothing to do with it, and he has good intuition, but let him explain as he wants.

“And Kadyrov can be replaced, and Shoigu is not completely trusted”

- We are talking on the day of Dzhabrailov's arrest...

Already under arrest? No detention?

- So far, the detention, but the charge has been brought: hooliganism. Shot in a hotel. Four seasons. At Red Square.

- Well, that's okay. I think they will let go. The maximum is a subscription. (While he was writing, he was released on a subscription. Either someone knocks on him, or he writes the script himself. - D.B.)

“But before, he was generally untouchable…”

- Yes, there will be no inviolable now, except for the narrowest circle. The problem is not that there are no institutions in Russia, but that a typical Russian institution, the roof, stops working. A month ago, they hinted to me that two banks were under attack - Otkritie and another, considered ethnic, and that there would not be enough funds to save both. The Opening has just been rescued. So the rest of the can get ready? And there is such a roof!

– After the assassination of Nemtsov, he even left Russia for a while. But the idea was even earlier, even, they say, they found a replacement - but that person had not been to Chechnya for a long time and did not come up. However, for Kadyrov it would be an honorable dismissal: it was about the status of Deputy Prime Minister. But no portfolio.

– Did Chechnya know about this supposed change?

- Yes. And Kadyrov, of course, knew. After all, this famous phrase of his that he is “Putin's infantryman” means a readiness to obey any order of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief.

– The longer he stays outside Ukraine, the more difficult it will be to integrate him there, and the time limit, as it seems to me, is five years. After that, alienation and enmity can become difficult to overcome. As the Russian side says at the talks: if we weaken support for the Donbass, Ukrainian troops will enter there and mass repressions will begin. However, there is a certain compromise option: Donbass goes under interim international administration (UN, for example) and the “blue helmets” enter there. Several years (at least five - seven) will be spent on the reconstruction of the region, the formation of local authorities, and so on. Then a referendum is held on its status. Currently, Ukraine is vehemently rejecting the idea of ​​federalization because Russia is proposing it. And if Europe proposes federalization, then Ukraine can accept this idea.

- And no Zakharchenko?

- He will leave somewhere ... If not to Argentina, then to Rostov.

- What do you think: in the summer of 2014 it was possible to go to Mariupol, Kharkov, then everywhere else?

- In April 2014, it could have been done much easier, and no one could have defended themselves. One local high-ranking character, we will not name names (although we know), called Turchynov and said: if you resist, in two hours the troops will land on the roof of the Verkhovna Rada. He wouldn't have landed, of course, but it sounded so convincing! Turchynov tried to organize a defense, but only the police with pistols were at his disposal. And he himself was ready to climb onto the roof with a grenade launcher and in a helmet ...

"And why didn't you go?" Scared what?

I don't think it would be turned off. In my opinion, they would have swallowed it the same way they swallowed Crimea in the end: after all, we have the main sanctions for the Donbass. But, firstly, it turned out that in Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk the mood is far from being the same as in Donetsk. And secondly, let's even assume that you have annexed Ukraine as a whole - and what to do? There are only two and a half million people in Crimea - and even then its integration into Russia is, frankly, not going smoothly. And here - about forty-five million! And what will you do with them when it is not clear how to deal with your own?

“Actually, there is another scenario. bang - and all our problems will cease to exist.

- It won't bang.

- But why? Did he launch a rocket over Japan?

“He doesn’t have enough of those missiles. And he won't do anything with Guam. The only thing he really threatens is Seoul. But South Korea has the status of a strategic ally of the United States, and after the first strike on Seoul - and there really is nothing to be done there, the distance is 30-40 km to the border - Trump has a free hand and the Kim regime ceases to exist.

“So it’s all going to end there?”

- I think so, yes. My friends from Seoul...

Also sources?

- Colleagues. And they say that there is no premonition of war or even a military threat: the metropolis lives an ordinary life, people do not panic ...

“Obama asked, and Putin stopped”

- What, in your opinion, is the real role of Russia in Trump's victory?

– Russia (or, as Putin called it, “patriotic hackers”) did launch attacks, after which Obama, in his words, warned Putin, and the attacks stopped. But all this was before September 2016! Otherwise, Trump's victory is the result of his successful political strategy and Hillary's mistakes. She couldn't play on the predestination factor. If you talk all the time about your uncontested victory, they will want to teach you a lesson. This, by the way, is one of the reasons why Putin is slow to announce the campaign.

What did Trump do? His team clearly understood which states to win. Trump has successfully politicized the rednecks, a white middle class that is embittered and somewhat stagnant. He showed them an alternative: you are not voting for an establishment man, but for a simple guy, the flesh of the flesh of authentic America. And he won on it. But Trump - and this was understood here - is not so good for Russia: rather, Moscow simply did not like Clinton very much.

– Is there a global revenge of the conservatives in the world?

– These myths could be believed in 1916, when Brexit happened at the same time, Trump won, and Le Pen got some chances. But Le Pen never had a chance to go beyond the second round. And then... There are relapses, without them the era does not go away, but as the era of Gutenberg ended, so did the time of political conservatism, as we knew it before. People live by other oppositions, other desires, and the fight against globalism is the destiny of those who want to live in the “mental Donbass”. There will always be such people, these are their personal ideas, which do not affect anything.

- And a big war is not visible on the Russian routes?

“We are definitely not initiating it. If others start, which is extremely unlikely, they will have to participate, but Russia itself has neither the idea, nor the resource, nor the desire. What war, what are you talking about? Look around: how many volunteers went to Donbass? War is a great way to solve internal problems, as long as it does not lead to suicide: this is the situation now.

– But why did they take Crimea then? Distracted from the protests?

- I don't think. The protests were not dangerous. Putin just wondered: what will remain of him in history? Olympics? And if he really raised Russia from its knees, what was the result of this? The idea of ​​appropriation/return of Crimea existed before the Maidan, just in a milder version. Let's buy it from you. It was possible to agree on this with Yanukovych, but then the power in Ukraine collapsed, and Crimea actually fell into hands.

And will he remain Russian?

- I guess so. It will be written in the Ukrainian Constitution that he is Ukrainian, but everyone will put up with it.

- But how do you imagine the idea that post-Putin Russia will live with?

Very simple: recovery. Because now the country and society are seriously ill, and we all feel it. The problem is not even corruption, this is a special case. The problem is in the deepest, triumphant, general immorality. In absolute absurdity, idiocy, which is felt at all levels. In the Middle Ages, where we fall - not by someone's evil will, but simply because if there is no movement forward, then the world is rolling back. We need a return to the norm: normal education, calm business, objective information. Everyone wants this, and, with a few exceptions, even those around Putin. And everyone will breathe a sigh of relief when the norm returns. When they stop inciting hatred, and fear will cease to be the main emotion.

And then money will return to the country quite quickly - including Russian money, withdrawn and hidden. And we will become one of the best launch pads for business, and economic growth within ten to twenty years may turn out to be record-breaking.

- And how will we all live together again - so to speak, our Krym and Namkrysh?

How did you live after the Civil War? You have no idea how quickly it all grows. People sort things out when they have nothing to do, and then everyone will have something to do, because today there is total senselessness and aimlessness in the country. This will end - and everyone will find something to do. Except, of course, those who want to remain irreconcilable. There are five percent of such people in any society, and this is their personal choice.

- Finally, explain: how are you tolerated at MGIMO?

– You know from your own experience that there are different people at MGIMO. There are retrogrades and liberals, there are rightists and leftists. And I am neither the one nor the other. I look at everything from the standpoint of ordinary, unbiased common sense. And to everyone who wants to be a successful interpreter of reality here, I can give the only advice: do not look for insidious plans and malicious intent where banal stupidity, greed and cowardice operate.

Biography milestones:

1983 - Graduated from the Faculty of History of Moscow State University

1993 - becomes an expert of the "Gorbachev-Fund"

1995 - completed an internship at the London School of Economics and Political Science

2012 - elected chairman of the New Force party