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The activities of any enterprise must be managed in such a way as to ensure that the threat of financial crises (the extreme manifestation of which is bankruptcy) is minimized. At the same time, despite the awareness of the importance of this problem, in fact, little attention is paid to it in practice. The article discusses various approaches to forecasting financial crises in the activities of an enterprise. More than 20 different models and their modifications have been analyzed. It is shown that the main disadvantage of many methods is fixing attention on individual performance indicators, to the detriment of complex analysis. The practice of financial management at a number of the largest enterprises in Russia belonging to various industries allows us to draw an important methodological conclusion: for almost any enterprise, any kind of risk can ultimately be expressed as a sum of money that may be lost and / or overpaid by the enterprise. A method for forecasting financial crises based on modeling and analysis of the current and future cash flows of an enterprise, as well as its modification in the form of a probabilistic model, is proposed.

financial model

financial crisis

forecasting

complex analysis

cash flow

probability

bankruptcy

1. Ermasova N.B. Risk management of the organization: a tutorial. - M.: Alfa-Press, 2005 .-- ISBN 5942801398.

2. Ivliev S.V., Kokosh A.M. Assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of closed companies according to financial statements // Banks and Risks. - 2005. - No. 1 [Electronic resource]. - URL: http://www.ifel.ru/br1/15.pdf.

3. Kovalev V.V., Volkova O.N. Analysis of the economic activity of the enterprise. - M.: OOO "TK Welby", 2002. - 424 p.

4. Lyapunov A.M. A new form of the probability limit theorem. Collected works. - M., 1954. - T. 1. - 157 p.

5. Nedosekin A.O. Business risk assessment based on fuzzy data [Electronic resource]. - URL: http://sedok.narod.ru/ - 100 p.

6. On insolvency (bankruptcy): Federal Law dated 26.10.2002 No. 127-FZ // Collected Legislation. - 2002. - No. 43. - Art. 4190.

7. Review of the practice of financial risk and treasury management in Russia. KPMG CJSC website, a member of the KPMG International Association [Electronic resource]. - URL: http://www.kpmg.ru/.

8. Fomin P.A. Methodology for the formation and planning of the financial potential of the enterprise in the framework of the strategy of economic growth: monograph. - M.: Publishing and Trade Corporation "Dashkov and K", 2008. - 224 p.

9. Eitingon V.N., Anokhin S.A. Bankruptcy forecasting: basic techniques and problems [Electronic resource]. - URL: http://www.iteam.ru/publications/strategy/section_16/article_141/.

10. Valeriy Galasyuk, Viktor Galasyuk. Consideration of economic risks in a valuation practice: journey from the kingdom of tradition to the kingdom of common sense. // ICFAI Journal of Applied Finance - 2008. - Vol.14. - No. 6. - Pp. 18-33.

Introduction

It is obvious that the activities of any enterprise should be carried out in such a way as to minimize the threat of financial crises, the extreme manifestation of which is bankruptcy. In economics, a significant number of approaches have been developed to assess the threat of bankruptcy in the activities of an enterprise, most of which are based on the analysis of indicators of profitability, liquidity and / and the cost of capital. However, in the context of a system-wide financial and economic crisis, various negative factors, aggravating and acting synergistically, can create a serious risk even for an enterprise that is potentially stable by all indicators. Therefore, in a crisis, the issue of assessing the risk of bankruptcy becomes especially relevant for any business entity, and the criteria for assessing financial risks are often the main basis for making decisions in the financial management system.

At the same time, despite the awareness of the importance of this problem, in fact, little attention is paid to it at the enterprises. A survey conducted by KPMG (ZAO KPMG, a member of the KPMG International Association) in the period from September to December 2007 among the leaders of more than 100 largest Russian companies showed that “... in the overwhelming majority of subsidiaries of groups and in more than 40% of parent companies lack a risk management system. Only 10% of parent companies and about 5% of subsidiaries have a fully implemented risk management system ”(Fig. 1).

Rice. 1. The qualitative state of the risk management systemat Russian enterprises.

The reason for this, in our opinion, lies in a large gap between the classical theory and practice of recent times, which led to discrediting the existing methods of forecasting financial crises in the activities of an enterprise due to their obvious inadequacy to real life situations.

Analysis of existing approaches

For the first time, the task of predicting financial crises in the activities of an enterprise was set in the United States after the end of World War II. This was facilitated by a sharp jump in the number of bankruptcies of enterprises associated with a sharp reduction in military orders, as well as the clearly manifested uneven development of companies (the prosperity of some against the background of the collapse of others). The desire of various authors to take into account all the variety of financial conditions of a modern enterprise taking place in practice has led to the development of a number of different models for assessing the likelihood of crises.

Rice. 2. Comparison of bankruptcy risk assessment for different models.

The most popular in the West are integral methods (the so-called Z-models), which are based on the calculation of one integral indicator based on a set of coefficients characterizing the financial activity of an enterprise (for example, current liquidity, the share of borrowed funds, etc.), which are then multiplied on the values ​​of the weight coefficients found empirically, and are summed up. Comparison of the calculated integral indicator with the established standard value allows us to conclude about the likelihood of bankruptcy of the enterprise. As a rule, these models bear the names of their creators: "Altman model", "Liss model", "Taffler model", etc. ... Based on the accumulated statistical data on domestic enterprises, Russian scientists have also developed a number of their own models, such as Fedotova's model, Zaitseva's model, Saifullin-Kadykov's model, etc. ... However, according to Professor V.N. Eitingon, "none of them can claim to be used as universal."

The conclusion of V.N. Eitingon can be clearly illustrated by the following practical example: Figure 2 shows graphs of changes in the bankruptcy risk of the same enterprise over several periods, obtained on the basis of calculations for eight different models (of which 4 are foreign, 4 are domestic).

In total, we analyzed more than 20 different models and their modifications. The analysis shows that, despite the fact that almost all methods more or less reliably characterize the qualitative dynamics of changes in the state of the enterprise, the quantitative assessment of the bankruptcy risk obtained by various methods differs significantly. Thus, one and the same enterprise, depending on the selected assessment methodology, can simultaneously be declared bankrupt, an enterprise in a pre-crisis state, and a stable economic entity. From such a comparison, it becomes obvious that the approaches proposed by various authors do not satisfy the key requirement - resistance to variations in the initial data. And therefore, they can be effectively applied only for enterprises of that group and for the economic situation of the period for which they were originally developed.

In addition to the integral models discussed above, a number of approaches are also known, which are based on methods of mathematical analysis and modeling. However, all of them, as a rule, are quite laborious and not quite suitable for a financial manager-practitioner, since they require special mathematical training for their understanding, and for practical application - the presence of specialized software. Whereas in making management decisions, the speed and ease of obtaining, as well as logical transparency (understanding "why is this?") Of the required assessments play a key role.

Thus, in the current economic situation, an important task is to develop our own approach and methodology for assessing the risk of financial crises in the activities of an enterprise, which eliminates the above disadvantages.

Development of a methodology for forecasting financial crises

In the theory of risk management, a group of "financial risks" is usually distinguished, to which it is customary to include, first of all, the risks associated with fluctuations in prices for goods and services, the dynamics of inflation and the refinancing rate of the Central Bank, bank interest rates on loans and deposits, fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and quotations of government and corporate securities, as well as a number of other indicators.

At the same time, Academician of the Academy of Economic Sciences of Ukraine, Honored Appraiser of the Ukrainian Society of Appraisers V. Galasyuk proved that “no matter how diverse and numerous the risk factors of a particular project / business are (for example, a jump in raw materials prices, disruption of the construction time of a new workshop, violation of production technology , the emergence of a serious competitor on the market, the loss of a group of key specialists, a change in the political regime, weather disasters, etc.), all of them ultimately manifest themselves in only two forms: actual positive conditional cash flows (cash flows, incomes) will be less expected and / or actual negative notional cash flows (cash flows, expenses) will be higher than expected. " The validity of this interpretation of the concept of risk, in relation to specific business entities, has been repeatedly confirmed by us in our practice, which allowed us to draw the following methodological conclusion: for any enterprise, any kind of risk can ultimately be expressed as a sum of money that may not be received and / or overpaid by the business entity.

N.B. Ermasova, considering risks as the possibility of the enterprise receiving losses, identifies three possible degrees of danger: acceptable risk - the possibility of losses in the amount of the estimated amount of profit; critical risk - the possibility of losses in the amount of the estimated amount of income (that is, the enterprise's loss will be calculated by the amount of costs incurred by it); catastrophic risk - the possibility of losses in the amount of the entire equity capital or a significant part of it. At the same time P.A. Fomin suggests considering financial risks from three positions: 1 - as a danger of a potentially possible, probable loss of financial resources (financial risk manifests itself as a direct loss); 2 - as the danger of a shortfall in expected income in comparison with the option, which is designed for the rational use of all resources in this area of ​​activity (financial risk manifests itself as an indirect loss); 3 - as the probability of receiving an additional amount of profit associated with risk (financial risk manifests itself as additional income).

We believe that the methodology for assessing the risk of financial insolvency, when making strategic decisions in the field of financial support of an enterprise, should be based not on the forecast of individual indicators of the financial condition, but on a detailed analysis and forecasting of the company's cash flow and its dynamics as a result of changes in external and / or internal factors.

To form the model, we will proceed from the postulate put forward by J. Conan and M. Golder - "bankruptcy is the inability of an enterprise to timely pay off its obligations to counterparties and creditors." Thus, we propose to assess the likelihood of a financial crisis as the likelihood of an event occurring in which the company will be unable to meet its obligations. Note that this principle is fully consistent with the definition of bankruptcy established by the Federal Law of Russia "On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)".

Consider the activities of the enterprise at any time (in practice, for convenience, the moment is chosen that coincides with the moment of the next quarterly or annual reporting). Let's fix the current financial condition of the enterprise. Then, in the worst case, the enterprise at the next moment in time may not receive additional receipts from counterparties, but receive claims for payment for its obligations.

The company will repay the liabilities presented for payment at the expense of the liquid assets at its disposal, which represent the amount of accumulated cash flow, required short-term financial investments, as well as the accounts receivable planned to be paid off. At the same time, for the correct accounting of accounts receivable, it is necessary to take into account that not all of the debt will be repaid in the next period, and also that the advances issued in the accounts receivable will be closed by the performance of work (delivery of products or the provision of services).

Thus, the total amount of financial coverage available to the company (CA - Cover Amount) can be determined as:

where: - the sum of the accumulated cash flow; - the amount of required short-term financial investments; - the amount of short-term receivables that will be repaid during the forecast period (minus advances issued); - the amount of long-term accounts receivable (net of advances issued); - a coefficient showing the share of long-term receivables that will be repaid during the forecast period (with long-term planning, it can be calculated as the reciprocal of the average maturity of long-term receivables for the enterprise).

The amount of liabilities that will be presented to the enterprise for payment is calculated as the sum of loans and borrowings to be paid, interest for the use of loans and borrowings, as well as the accounts payable planned to be paid off. For the correct calculation of the amount of credits, loans and payables payable, it is necessary to take into account that not all of them will be repaid in the current period, and also that the advances received reflected in the payables will be closed by the performance of work (delivery of products or the provision of services).

Thus, the total amount of possible obligations to be presented to the enterprise (OP - Obligations to Payment) can be determined as:

where: - the amount of short-term loans and borrowings; - the amount of long-term loans and borrowings that will be repaid during the forecast period; - coefficient showing the share of long-term loans and borrowings that will be repaid during the reporting period (with long-term planning, it can be calculated as the reciprocal of the average maturity of long-term loans and borrowings as a whole for the enterprise); - the amount of interest payable for the use of credits and loans; - the amount of accounts payable (less advances received); - a coefficient showing the share of accounts payable that will be repaid during the forecast period (with long-term planning, it can be calculated as the reciprocal of the average maturity of accounts payable for the enterprise).

Then the probability of the occurrence of financial insolvency of the enterprise (bankruptcy) can be estimated as the probability of an event occurring in which the amount of financial coverage available to the enterprise is less than the amount of possible liabilities to be paid, that is, in relation to the case under consideration, the condition of the financial security of the enterprise can be written as:

Note that although the expression (3) obtained above is similar in form to that proposed by S.V. Ivliev and A.M. Kokosh, the content of the indicators included in it is different. The approach we propose, based on detailed modeling and analysis of enterprise cash flows, turns out to be more reliable and flexible in practice. In addition, the proposed model makes it possible to implement the principle of mutual compensation of financial indicators: the deterioration of some indicators can be compensated by the improvement of others (for example, an increase in the amount of accounts payable can be compensated by an adequate increase in accounts receivable), which in general will not lead to a change in the likelihood of a financial crisis.

Probabilistic model for forecasting financial crises

It is obvious that economic processes are influenced by a large number of independent random factors; therefore, it seems necessary to introduce the concept of "probability" into the developed model.

In the forecast period, the most favorable situation for the enterprise will be the case when the amount of future receipts is maximum, and the amount of future payments is zero. On the contrary, in the most unfavorable situation, the amount of receipts will be zero, and the amount of payments will be the maximum. Then, given that each future receipt and payment has a certain probabilistic assessment, it is possible to assess the risk of a financial crisis in the company's activities as the risk of a funding gap. That is, as the ratio of the value of the expected total cash outflow, taking into account the probability of payments to the total mass of all probable financial transactions (that is, the total amount of all received and paid cash, taking into account the corresponding probability, but without taking into account the sign):

,(4)

where: - predicted i-th cash flow; - projected j-th cash outflow; , is the probability of the i-th inflow and j-th outflow of funds, respectively.

Graphically, this ratio is illustrated in Figure 3 - the risk of funding gaps is numerically equal to the ratio of the area of ​​the rectangle to the total area of ​​both rectangles.

Rice. 3. On the question of determining the likelihood of funding gaps.

In the case when it is not possible to estimate the probability of receipts and payments (for example, when predicting financial flows for the long term), under some general conditions it can be assumed that the result of external factors affecting the financial condition of the enterprise has a distribution close to normal (although each of the terms separately may not obey the normal law of probability distribution). This position is mathematically substantiated in the theorem of A.M. Lyapunov. It can be assumed that the hypothesis of normal distribution is valid for all cases, except for cases of a progressive system-wide financial crisis, accompanied by a sharp jump in non-payments.

Then the probability of bankruptcy of the enterprise (PB - Probability of Default) can be estimated by probabilistic methods by applying the normal distribution function to equation (3) as:

, (5)

where: - the amount of financial coverage available to the company; - the amount of liabilities to be paid to the enterprise; - standard normal distribution function; is the standard root-mean-square deviation of the random component of the indicator.

Conclusion

The basis for using the proposed methods and models is a comprehensive financial and economic model of the enterprise, which reveals in detail the inflow and outflow of cash during the forecast period of time. An increasing number of domestic companies come to the conclusion that in order to ensure further successful development, they need to work out their strategic plans in more detail. And for large companies, the absence of a development strategy based on a financial model is already beginning to be perceived as bad form. Therefore, in any case, such a model must be developed at the enterprise.

The proposed approaches have been tested by us at a number of the largest enterprises in Russia belonging to various industries, and have shown positive results. Thus, it is possible to recommend the use of the proposed methods for predicting the occurrence of financial crises in the system of financial and anti-crisis management of an industrial enterprise.

Reviewers:

• VV Stroyev, Doctor of Economics, Vice-Rector for Research and Quality, Moscow State University of Food Production, Moscow.
• Fomin P.A., Doctor of Economics, Professor. General Director of CJSC "Business-Effect", Moscow.

Bibliographic reference

N. V. Kuznetsov THE PROBLEM OF DEVELOPING THE METHODOLOGY FOR FORECASTING FINANCIAL CRISES IN THE ACTIVITIES OF THE ENTERPRISE // Modern problems of science and education. - 2011. - No. 6 .;
URL: http://science-education.ru/ru/article/view?id=5079 (date of access: 18.03.2019). We bring to your attention the journals published by the "Academy of Natural Sciences"

The use of financial planning in the current environment is necessary, but there are factors that limit its use in enterprises:

A high degree of uncertainty in the Russian market associated with ongoing global changes in all spheres of public life (their unpredictability makes planning difficult);

An insignificant share of enterprises with the financial capacity to carry out serious financial developments;

Lack of a regulatory framework for domestic business.

Large companies have great opportunities for effective financial planning. They have sufficient financial resources to attract highly qualified specialists to carry out large-scale planned work in the field of finance.

In small businesses, as a rule, there are no funds for this, although the need for financial planning is greater than in large ones. Small firms are more likely to need to attract borrowed funds to support their economic activities, while the external environment of such enterprises is less controllable and more aggressive. As a result, the future of a small enterprise is more uncertain and unpredictable.

For Russian enterprises, two areas can be outlined that need to apply planning:

1) newly created private firms. The rapid process of capital accumulation has led to an increase and complication of the activities of many of these firms, as well as to the emergence of other factors that create the need for forms of planning adequate to the modern market economy. The main problem associated with the use of planning in this area is distrust of formal planning, based on the opinion that business is the ability to "spin", to correctly navigate in the current situation, and hence insufficient attention even to the not very distant future. Nonetheless, many of the larger firms began to create planning units, or at least introduced the position of a financial planner.

2) state and former state, now privatized enterprises. For them, the planning function is traditional. However, their planning experience is mainly from the period of the centralized economy. Hence, planning at these enterprises was of a secondary nature, reflected the planned activities at the central and sectoral levels, and, therefore, did not imply a serious ability to analyze and foresee their own development goals.

Therefore, both organizations of the first type and state and privatized enterprises need to re-learn the experience of in-house planning.

In general, Russian planning has always had an element of unjustified generalization of private experience. It is present even now: uniform principles and planning formats, including efficiency criteria and control methods, were used practically unchanged in all regions, industries, for all enterprises of holdings and groups, almost without taking into account the peculiarities of organizational structures, management systems, distribution systems, delegation of powers , the relationship between current and strategic objectives, regional and sectoral characteristics of enterprises. Another characteristic feature is the inability to prioritize.

Analysis of the reasons for the lack of efficiency in the functioning of a number of enterprises made it possible to identify the main problems and formulate the following principles for setting the planning system:

The process of changing the planning system must keep pace with the processes of mergers, acquisitions, and corresponding changes in the structures, management systems of enterprises and holdings;

Planning (adjustment and clarification) should be carried out “from top to bottom” according to the principle of a “tree of goals”, that is, systematically, then the plans will be comprehensive and self-sufficient. At the same time, “from above” is not from the general manager, but from the founders, owners, investors, those people who own this business. If this rule is not observed, then planning turns into an absolutely meaningless action;

Scenario planning should be carried out taking into account changes in the external environment, external and internal risks;

It is necessary to plan protective actions and countermeasures to compensate for the real threats of competitors, their lobbying actions, etc.;

It is necessary to optimize plans and production programs taking into account the strategic interests of the owner, according to economic and investment criteria;

The planning system must be tied to the existing system of responsibility centers, authorities, controlling system at the enterprise, otherwise the implementation of even the best plans will be ineffective;

An obligatory requirement is that the planning system must include a motivation system for top managers, “key” managers and specialists.

The implementation of these principles of building a planning system allows (of course, in combination with other management components) to build and implement a strategy that minimizes the probability of losses.

There are two main lines along which everything must be correctly built: strategic planning and, accordingly, strategic business management and operational (tactical) planning.

If we talk about strategic planning, it is, first of all, the search for those points, directions and ways of doing business that will give the maximum result in a certain time horizon. It is understood that every day, week, month in any business, something happens or should happen. Therefore, planning meetings, meetings and other events help to efficiently manage the process.

The main difficulty in planning is implementation. It's not so difficult to write a plan, but how to make it work.

The plans, of course, must be “workable,” and they must contain the real desires of the top executives of the company. Often times, plans made by other people do not work precisely because they are foreign.

Also, the plan must be realistic from a market point of view. That is, you need a marketing analysis: is there a market, is there a certain number of consumers, are they ready to pay money. Companies often don't take this into account. In strategic planning as part of strategic management, the key point, of course, is the market, and the main thing is to get to the point, not to miscalculate.

The next aspect of planning is organizational capabilities. It is necessary to calculate whether there are enough resources for a good market.

And there is also a very subtle moment that arises during implementation. Plans must be internalized by managers, they must be willing to do it. The problem area is precisely strategic planning. They try to implement tactical planning in one way or another: make current plans, schedules, schedule meetings, and so on. Although they often build schedules, but they forget to appoint those responsible.

Strategic planning is much more complicated. Only strong, large companies enter the "strategic" level. They are faced with the task of reaching a new level of business, and there is a need for planning of a completely different kind.

To satisfy such a need, one must have serious information about how such a business is developing in other countries, how such a business can develop in Russia, taking into account political and economic conditions in five years, that is, information that needs to be specially collected.

The most common problem is restructuring. That is, the company has “grown”, complex organizational changes are needed. And this is followed by systematic work on strategy, marketing, personnel formation, corporate culture. But the need for serious planning is limited to these organizations only. Good plans are now found in one company in ten, and their complete absence - in four out of ten. But, on the other hand, most of the companies are already making them. Compared to the end of the 90s, the progress is very significant. And development will proceed in a positive direction, especially since the degree of uncertainty of the situation in the country, region, will decrease. Civilized marketing information also appears.

The enterprise must plan and control in two main economic areas. It is about the profitability (profitability) of his work and financial position. Therefore, the budget (plan) for profit and the financial plan (budget) are the central elements of intra-company planning.

Planning for working capital requirements. At the enterprise, it is necessary to plan the use of both fixed and working capital. An important factor in planning the use of working capital is planning the time of receipt of income and expense. The availability of the working capital of the enterprise should cover the costs from the time of the start of production until the consumer pays for the product.

Planning for fixed capital requirements. As the enterprise develops, machine tools wear out, technology changes, new buildings, equipment, computers are required. The time frame for acquiring fixed assets is often quite long. This means that it is important to integrate financial planning into the strategic planning process of the enterprise. If an enterprise wants to conquer new markets and expand production of a product, it must take care of the capital requirements in the process of forming long-term marketing plans and basic research on production methods. Planning sources of income. Many sources of enterprise funds are known, including income from the sale of products, investments of its owners, and loans. The challenge, first of all, is to find the best source for each need and exactly at the time when such a need arises.

Good planning is about getting the funds you need, not only on time, but also at the lowest cost. To do this, you need to find a bank that can provide them at the present time, correlate the source of funds with the purpose for which they will be used, balance various sources, since you cannot rely only on bank loans, only on issuing shares or proceeds from income. In particular, timing must be right: sell stocks when the stock market is booming, don't borrow when discount rates are high, and so on.

Planning can raise new issues for an organization. Some of these include:

Complexity of planning. This requires a change of mindset. Strategic planning should be a creative process using new ideas. Many people are not ready for this type of decision making. New relationships and roles can arise from the application of strategic planning. Individuals may be unhappy with additional assignments and activities;

Planning requires additional investment of time, involvement of new people, not to mention time for research, reallocation of resources, changes in the organization. All of this can "drown" the organization, especially when resources are scarce;

Plans can be ineffective. Incorrect assumptions, overly optimistic forecasts, and other decisions can lead to an ineffective strategic plan. Such a strategic plan can lead to serious problems in the organization;

Impossibility of application. If top management does not support the strategic plan, then application becomes impossible and the whole process is a waste of time and resources. Additionally, there may be internal resistance to strategic planning.

The main target function of planning is to ensure long-term competitiveness, which determines the strength and stability of the object of management in the market. Another main function is information and orientation. The key task is to provide guidelines for managers that, on the one hand, are in line with their interests, and on the other hand, contribute to the achievement of the main results of the plan. To draw up a sound development program, an enterprise must constantly collect and analyze a huge amount of information about the industry, market, competition and other factors in order to predict future problems and opportunities. This provides senior management with the means to create a long-term plan, a basis for making decisions, and formally helps reduce risk in making those decisions.

In a market economy, fierce competition, the importance and relevance of financial planning increases. The well-being of a commercial organization fundamentally depends on the competent organization of financial planning. A business cannot flourish without developed financial plans (budgets) and without monitoring their implementation. In developed countries, planning is one of the most important tools for regulating the economy. Russian commercial organizations have extensive experience in forecasting and planning work, developing various feasibility studies, assessing the economic efficiency of projects, which should not be ignored. However, the use in modern conditions of theories that have lost their economic relevance inevitably leads to a crisis in the management of many domestic enterprises. It is obvious that changes in business conditions necessitate the formation of a planning system based on the synthesis of Russian practice and the achievements of world economic thought. At the same time, special attention should be paid to the organizational and methodological aspects of financial planning.

Unfortunately, at present in most commercial organizations there is no financial planning, and the decisions taken by the management on the organization of financial and economic activities are not justified by appropriate calculations and are of an intuitive nature. To a certain extent, attention to the preparation of financial plans at the enterprises of our country has been weakened due to the overwhelming influence of external forces and circumstances: high inflation, financial crisis, frequent changes and adjustments of the legal framework of organizations, the rupture of economic ties, etc.

In many commercial organizations, planned work is carried out only for a short period of time and is reduced to determining a more or less accurate amount of advance tax payments. However, too short a planning horizon over time turns into a barrier to business development and leads to an emphasis on current problems. Therefore, even more importance should be given to strategic and long-term planning. In this regard, the evolution of the behavior of Russian business is positive - the wave of redistribution of ownership and control has come to an end, companies are implementing new development strategies oriented not for a month or a quarter, but for years.

Financial planning and forecasting at the enterprise is interconnected with the planning of economic activities and is based on the indicators of the production plan. However, drawing up a plan is not a simple arithmetic recalculation of the indicators of the production plan into financial indicators. In the planning process, an analysis of the production plan indicators is carried out, on-farm reserves unaccounted for in them and ways of more efficient use of the enterprise's production capacity, more rational consumption of material and monetary resources, improving product quality, expanding the range, etc. are identified and used.

In conditions of political and economic instability, as well as high inflation rates, planning does not make sense. However, the higher the level of uncertainty generated by instability, the more significant is the role of planning, in the course of which various economic options should be justified that are adequate to the corresponding forecast development scenarios. At the same time, the planning system itself must be rebuilt. That is, when planning and forecasting, you need to more carefully approach the choice of methods, more fully consider and explore the environment, and have accurate information about the financial side of the issue.

Summarizing the above, we can say that financial planning and forecasting are essential elements of economic management. Forecast and plan complement each other. The purpose of forecasting is, first of all, to create the prerequisites for the implementation of planning decisions. The purpose of financial planning is to determine the aggregate need of the enterprise for financial resources in the amount that provides financing for the expansion of production, the fulfillment of financial and credit obligations to the budget, banks, etc., the solution of social problems and the tasks of material incentives for employees of the enterprise. In addition, financial planning helps to prevent excess and excess expenditure of inventory and financial resources, both for certain types of activities and for the enterprise as a whole. For the successful operation of the enterprise in the practice of financial planning and forecasting, various methods are used, indicated in the first chapter. To solve problems at domestic enterprises, it is important to identify the reasons for the ineffective operation of the enterprise and to formulate the basic principles of setting the planning and forecasting system. Having considered the theoretical and methodological aspects of financial planning and forecasting at the enterprise, let us move on to studying the assessment of efficiency using the example of OJSC “Neftekamskneftekhim”.

Thanks to the rapid development of information technologies, it became possible to analyze a large amount of information in a matter of seconds, build complex mathematical models, and solve multi-criteria optimization problems. Scientists working on cyclical economic development began to develop theories, believing that tracking the trends of a number of economic variables would clarify and predict periods of boom and bust. The stock market was chosen as one of the objects for study. Repeated attempts have been made to construct a mathematical model that would successfully solve the problem of predicting the increment in stock prices. In particular, "technical analysis" has become widespread.

Technical analysis(technical analysis) is a set of methods for studying market dynamics, most often through charts, in order to predict the future direction of price movement. Today, this analytical method is one of the most popular. But is it possible to count those. analysis suitable for generating profit? Let's start by looking at the theory of stock market pricing.

One of the basic concepts since the 1960s. counts efficient market hypothesis(efficient market hypothesis, EMH), according to which information on prices and volumes of purchases and sales for the past period is publicly available. Consequently, any data that could ever be extracted from an analysis of past quotes has already been reflected in the share price. When traders compete with each other to make better use of this public knowledge, they are bound to drive prices to levels where expected rates of return are in line with the risk. At these levels, it is impossible to tell whether buying a stock is a good or a bad trade, i.e. the current price is objective, which means that one should not expect to receive in excess of the market yield. Thus, in an efficient market, asset prices reflect their true values, while holding those. analysis loses all meaning.

But it should be noted that today none of the existing stock markets in the world can be called completely information efficient. Moreover, taking into account modern empirical research, it can be concluded that the efficient market theory is rather a utopia, since is unable to fully rationally explain the real processes taking place in the financial markets.

In particular, a professor at Yale University, Robert Shiller, discovered a phenomenon that he later called excessive volatility in the prices of stock assets. The essence of the phenomenon lies in the frequent change in quotations, which defies rational explanation, namely, there is no possibility to interpret this phenomenon with the corresponding changes in fundamental factors.

In the late 1980s. the first steps were taken to create a model that, in contrast to the concept of an efficient market, would more accurately explain the real behavior of stock markets. In 1986, Fisher Black introduced a new term in his publication - "noise trading".

« Noise trade Is trading on noise perceived as if the noise were information. People who trade on noise will trade even when objectively they should have refrained from doing so. Perhaps they believe that the noise they are trading on is information. Or maybe they just like to trade". Although F. Black does not indicate which operators should be classified as "noise traders", the work of De Long, Schleifer, Summers and Waldman can be found in the description of such market participants. Noise traders mistakenly believe that they have unique information about future asset prices. The sources of such information can be false signals about non-existent trends given by the technical indicators. analysis, rumors, recommendations of financial "gurus". Noise traders greatly overestimate the value of available information and are willing to take unreasonably high risks. The empirical studies carried out also indicate that individual investors should be classified as noise traders first of all, i.e. individuals. Moreover, it is this group of traders who suffer systematic losses from trading due to the irrationality of their actions. For Western stock markets, empirical confirmation of this phenomenon can be found in the studies of Barber and Odin, and for operators of the Russian stock market - in the work of I.S. Nilov. The theory of noise trading makes it possible to explain the phenomenon of R. Schiller. It is the irrational actions of traders that cause excessive price volatility.

Summarizing modern research in the field of theories of pricing in the stock market, we can conclude that the use of technical analysis to make a profit is ineffective. Moreover, traders using those. analysis try to highlight repetitive graphic patterns (from the English pattern - a model, a sample). The drive to find different patterns of price behavior is very strong, and the ability of the human eye to pick out obvious trends is amazing. However, the identified patterns may not exist at all. The chart shows simulated and actual data for the Dow Jones Industrial Average throughout 1956, taken from research by Harry Roberts.

Chart (B) is a classic head and shoulders pattern. Chart (A) also looks like a "typical" pattern of market behavior. Which of the two charts is based on the actual values ​​of the stock market index, and which is based on simulated data? Graph (A) is based on actual data. Graph (B) is generated using the values ​​provided by the random number generator. The problem with identifying patterns where they do not actually exist is the lack of the required data. By analyzing the previous dynamics, you can always identify patterns and trading methods that could give you a profit. In other words, there is a set of an infinite number of strategies based on those. analysis. Some strategies from the general population demonstrate a positive result on historical data, others - a negative one. But in the future, we cannot know which group of systems will make it possible to consistently make a profit.

Also, one of the ways to determine the presence of patterns in time series is to measure serial correlation... The existence of a serial correlation in quotes may indicate a certain relationship between past and current stock returns. A positive serial correlation means that positive rates of return are usually accompanied by positive rates (a persistence property). Negative serial correlation means that positive rates of return are accompanied by negative rates (a reversal property or a "correction" property). By applying this method to stock prices, Kendall and Roberts (1959) have shown that patterns cannot be found.

Along with technical analysis, fundamental analysis... Its purpose is to analyze the value of stocks based on factors such as the prospects for profit and dividends, expectations of future interest rates and the risk of the firm. But, as in the case of technical analysis, if all analysts rely on publicly available information about a company's profits and its position in the industry, then it is difficult to expect that the assessment of the prospects obtained by any one analyst is much more accurate than the estimates of other specialists. Market research like this is done by many well-informed and well-funded firms. Given this fierce competition, it's hard to find data that other analysts don't already have. Therefore, if information about a particular company is publicly available, then the rate of return that an investor can count on will be the most common.

In addition to the methods described above, they are trying to use neural networks, genetic algorithms, etc. to forecast the market. But trying to use predictive methods in relation to financial markets turns them into self-destructing models... For example, suppose one of the methods predicts an underlying market growth trend. If the theory is widely accepted, many investors will immediately start buying stocks in anticipation of a rise in prices. As a result, growth will be much sharper and faster than predicted. Or, growth may not take place at all due to the fact that a large institutional participant, discovering excessive liquidity, begins to sell off its assets.

Self-liquidation of predictive models arises from their application in a competitive environment, namely, in an environment in which each agent tries to extract its own benefit, in a certain way influencing the system as a whole. The influence of an individual agent on the entire system is not significant (in a sufficiently developed market), however, the presence of the superposition effect provokes the self-destruction of a particular model. Those. if the trading algorithm is based on predictive methods, the strategy acquires the property of instability, and in the long term, the model self-destructs. If the strategy is parametric and predictively neutral, then this provides a competitive advantage over trading systems that use forecast for decision making. But it should be borne in mind that the search for strategies that satisfy such parameters as, for example, profit / risk occurs simultaneously with the search for similar systems by other traders and large financial companies based on the same historical data and practically according to the same criteria. This implies the need to use systems based not only on generally accepted basic parameters, but also on indicators such as reliability, stability, survivability, heteroscedasticity, etc. Trading strategies based on the so-called "Additional information dimensions"... They manifest themselves in other, usually related areas of activity and, for various reasons, are rarely used by a wide range of people in the stock market.

The above reasoning allows us to draw the following conclusions:

1. The theory of noise trading, in contrast to the concept of an efficient market, makes it possible to more accurately explain the real behavior of stock assets.
2. There is no regularity in the changes in the quotes of trading instruments, i.e. the market is impossible to predict.
3. The use of predictive methods, in particular technical analysis, leads to the inevitable ruin of the trader in the medium term.
4. For successful trading in the stock market, it is necessary to apply predictively neutral strategies based on "additional information dimensions".

List of used literature:

1. Shiller R. Irrational Exuberance. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2000.
2. Black F. Noise // Journal of Finance. 1986. Vol. 41. P. 529-543.
3. De Long J. B., Shleifer A. M., Summers L. H., Waldmann R. J. Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets // Journal of Political Economy. 1990. Vol. 98. P. 703-738.
4. Barber B. M., Odean T. Trading is hazardous to your wealth: The common stock investment performance of individual investors // Journal of Finance. 2000. Vol. 55. No. 2. P. 773-806.
5. Barber B. M., Odean T. Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment // Quarterly Journal of Economics. 2001. Vol. 116. P. 261-292.
6. Odean T. Do investors trade too much? // American Economic Review. 1999. Vol. 89. P. 1279-1298.
7. Nilov I. S. Who loses their money when trading on the stock market? // Financial management. 2006. No. 4.
8. Nilov I. S. Noise trade. Modern empirical research // RCB. 2006. No. 24.
9. Harry Roberts. Stock Market Patterns and Financial Analysis: Methodological Suggestions // Journal of Finance. Marth 1959. P. 5-6.

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Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation

Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education

Ural State Economic University

Course work

Theme: FinancialforecastingandplanningvOf Russia: content,methodology,Problemsandperspectivesdevelopment.

Yekaterinburg 2017

Contents

• BBedenore
• 1.TeoReticheskieocnoyou finaNSovoGoNSognozirovaniya and planirovaniya
• 1.1 Essentialost, nonyateand structuresafinaNSovoGomeNSanisma
• 1.2 Essenost, nonyateand types of finaNSovoGoNSognozirovaniya and planirovaniya
• 1.3 MeTody finaNSovoGoNSognozirovaniya and planirovaniya
• 2.CovepshenstvovanorefinaNSovoGoNSognozirovaniya and planirovain Possii nawithovremennom etaNSe
• 2.1 PlanirovanoredoNSodoin and pacxodoto the budgeteToin the RF
• 2.2 NaloGovoeplanirovanorenaNSeacceptance (oprabottomation) in the Russian Federation
• 2.3 Problewe finaNSovoGoNSognozirovaniya and planirovaniya and nerspektiva padevelopment
• Connection
• List of literature

Introduction

One of the main means of state regulation of the economy is the system of financial forecasting planning. Today it is the most developed and widespread form of government intervention in the economy and influence on social processes.

Not a single economic, let alone strategic decision can be made and implemented without foreseeing possible consequences, without choosing strategic priorities, and purposeful actions to implement them. For this, such proven tools are used as financial planning for the development of the economy of the state and its constituent regions. Thus, the state performs not only the function of general regulation of economic life, but also its strategic and innovative function, which determines the directions of structural shifts and innovative development, taking into account the prospects for the country's development and its place in the world economy.

At the present stage of development of the Russian economy, financial planning is a significant tool of the financial mechanism of the enterprise, keeping up

The improvement of the system of financial planning at the enterprise is one of the most advanced and built-in direction of the development of finance.

All of the above determines the relevance of the study of issues of financial forecasting and planning in Russia: its content, methodology, problems and development prospects.

The object of the study is the planning and forecasting of finances.

The foregoing is the methodology of financial planning and forecasting, as well as the problems and perspectives of its development in Russia.

The purpose of this course work is to study the content and methodology of financial planning and forecasting, to identify problems and prospects for the development of

This goal has led to the solution of the following problems of course work:

1. Consider the theoretical fundamentals of planning and forecasting of finances in the Russian Federation;

2. To study the essence and structural elements of the financial mechanism

3. To study the essence, types and methods of methods of financial forecasting and planning;

4. To study financial forecasting and planning in Russia at a modern stage;

5. To identify the problems of financial forecasting and planning, to consider the ways of their solution and to define the areas of perfection of planning the financial results.

When performing the work, the following research methods were used, as a comparison, detailing.

financial planning forecasting budget

1. Theoretical principles of financial forecasting and planning

1.1 Essence, concept and structure of financial mechanism

The practical implementation of financial policy is found in the financial measures of the state, which are implemented through financial mechanisms.

In a broad sense, a financial mechanism is a set of methods for organizing financial relations used by society in order to ensure favorable conditions for economic development. The financial mechanism includes the types, forms and methods of organizing financial relations, ways of quantifying them.

The structure of the financial mechanism is rather complex. It includes various elements corresponding to the variety of financial relationships. It is the multiplicity of financial relationships that predetermines the use of a large number of elements of the financial mechanism.

The structure of the financial mechanism is quite complex. It includes various elements corresponding to the diversity of financial relations. It is the plurality of financial interconnections that precludes the use of a large number of species, forms and methods of their organization (elements) of Finnish devices.

The organization of financial relations is the initial, primary element of the financial mechanism, since it defines the way of their expression and manifestation of In financial science, the types of financial resources are singled out, each of which is the result of a distribution process as well as in the environment and in the case of

Under the form of organization of financial relations, the external order of their organization is understood, i.e. installation of the mechanism of accumulation, distribution and use of financial resources and conditions of its implementation in practice. In hodeorganizatsii byudzhetnyh otnosheny ispolzuyutsya razlichnye formy raskhodov byudzhetov (Article 69 BK RF), formy postupleniya sredstv in protsesse mezhbyudzhetnogo raspredeleniya and pereraspredeleniya finansovyh resursov (otchisleniya From reguliruyuschih dohodov, dotatsii, subventsii et al.). When formirovanii nalogovyh dohodov byudzheta in their poryadok Simulator X will vklyuchatsya reglamentiruemye normami nalogovogo prava istochnik uplaty naloga and nalogovaya baza, protsentnye stavki, sistema nalogovyh lgot and sanktsy, a takzhe poryadok uplaty naloga. At the microlevel, various forms of financial support are used.

Methods of organizing financial relations in financial science are called methods of forming financial resources and practical realities. It is possible to highlight four basic methods of forming financial resources:

1. the financial method is used to form financial resources primarily on a non-returnable and free-of-charge basis;

2. the method of credit is associated with the provision of funds on the conditions of timeliness, return and pay.;

3. nalogovy metod podrazumevaet akkumulirovanie denezhnyh sredstv for finansovogoobespecheniya deyatelnosti gosudarstva and munitsipalnyh Simulator X in forme nalogov yuridicheskih and fizicheskih persons naobyazatelnoy, prinuditelnoy and bezvozmezdnoy osnovah;

4. The insurance method presupposes the formation of financial resources at the expense of the receipt of insurance premiums.

The essence of the financial mechanism is manifested in its functions - Figure 1.

Figure 1. Functions of the financial mechanism

Let us consider in detail the functions of the financial mechanism presented in Figure 1.

1. Oprabottomation financial mechanism is the measures directed at the national combination of labor, production facilities and technology in the process of managing finances,

Organizational procedures include:

1.1 creation of financial management bodies;

1.2 construction of the structure of the control apparatus;

1.3 development of methods, instructions, norms, norms, etc.

The organization of the financial mechanism also reflects a tight interconnection between the system of financial levers and financial resources.

This interconnection is expressed through coordination and regulation.

Coordination means the consistency of the work of all links of the mechanism system, control equipment and specialists.

The regulation means the operation of the mechanism on the financial resources, through which the state of stability of the financial system in the system The regulation covers the current measures to eliminate the deviations from the established norms and standards, from the schedules, from the planned targets.

2. Planning predstavlyaet soboy protsess vyrabotki planovyh View reference sostavleniya grafika their vypolneniya, razrabotku finansovyh planov and finansovyh programm, obespechenie their neobhodimymi resursam and rabochey siloy, kontrol za ispolneniem them. Planning is, first of all, an administration process, i.e. it bears a directive character.

3. Stimulation is expressed in the use of financial incentives to increase the efficiency of production and trade processes.

Financial incentives include prices, credits, use of profits and amortization for self-financing, taxes, premium rates, dividends, premiums, etc.

The Finnish mechanism performs the same function as finances. Along with this, the financial mechanism, as a tool for the operation of finances, has its own specific functions, and they are:

1.organization of financial relations;

2. management of cash flow, movement of financial resources and the relevant organization of financial relations.

The content of the first function is the creation of a strict system of money relations, taking into account the specifics of the operation of the operating process in the same or another sphere.

The action of the second function is expressed through the functioning of the financial manager, who is part of the financial mechanism.

For the effective use of finance, the implementation of financial planning and forecasting is of great importance. Regulatory registration of the applied methods of organizing financial relations (taxes, expenses, etc.), control over the correct application of various types, forms and methods of financial relations.

Thus, the main links (elements) of the financial mechanism are:

- financial planning and forecasting;

- financial indicators, standards and limits;

- financial management;

- financial levers and incentives;

- financial control.

Depending on the characteristics of individual divisions of the public economy and on the basis of the allocation of spheres and links of financial relations, the financial mechanism is subdivided into the financial mechanism of enterprises and economic organizations, the insurance mechanism, the mechanism of functioning of public finances, etc. In turn, each of these areas includes separate structural links.

Each area and individual link of the financial mechanism is an integral part of a single whole. They are interconnected and interdependent. At the same time, the spheres and links function relatively independently, which necessitates constant coordination of the components of the financial mechanism.

The internal linkage of the constituent links of the financial mechanism is its structure, shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Structural elements of the financial mechanism

FinaNSohighmeTody represent a method of operating financial relations on the business process, which includes production, investment and financial activities.

The Finnish method answers the question: "How to drive?" The effect of the financial method is manifested in the formation and use of money funds. Financial methods include planning, investment, forecasting, credit, insurance, calculation system, etc.

Finnishlevers represent a method of action of the financial method. The Finnish lever answers the question: "What to drive?" The financial levers include: profit, income, deductions, rent, percentage rates, financial standards, forms of calculation, other types of payments

Legal support the financial mechanism includes: legal acts, regulations, orders, circular letters and other legal documents of the governing bodies.

Normative support the financial mechanism creates instructions, norms, norms, tariff rates, methodological instructions and explanations, etc.

Information support the financial mechanism consists of different types and types of economic, commercial, financial and other information.

By finansovoy Informations otnositsya osvedomlenieo finansovoy ustoychivosti and platezhesposobnosti svoih partnerov and konkurentov, o tsenah, kursah, dividendah, protsentah tovarnom nA, and fondovom valyutnom rynkah and the like, a takzhe soobschenieo polozhenii del nA birzhevom, vnebirzhevom rynkah, o and finansovoy kommercheskoy the activity of any worthy attention of the holding entities, various other information. The one who owns the information also owns the financial market. Information (for example, information about suppliers, buyers, etc.) can be one of the types of intellectual property and be entered as an included in the official quality

All the elements of the financial mechanism are an integral part of a single whole and at the same time function relatively self-reliably. In this connection, there is a need for a constant agreement of their activities, since the internal linking of the structural divisions of the financial mechanism is in the function of

The Finnish mechanism is brought into action by setting the number of parameters for each element.

Methods for the quantitative determination of the parameters of the financial mechanism, which have meritorious characteristics, are its most mobile part. These include: methods of calculating budgetary revenues, methods of determining the necessary amount of financial assistance to the appropriate budgets, salaries, etc. Neobhodimost their postoyannogo and Change The sovershenstvovaniya diktuetsya peremenoy gosudarstvennogo ustroystva, sostava finansovyh polnomochy nA sootvetstvuyuschem urovne upravleniya, metodov hozyaystvovaniya, uslovy ekonomicheskogo and sotsialnogo upswing gosudarstva and prochimi faktorami. Such changes, as a rule, are conditioned by the goals and objectives of the financial policy of the state at the present stage.

Next, we turn to the consideration of the essence and types of financial forecasting and planning.

1.2 Essence, concept and types of financial forecasting and planning

Planning and forecasting are an important element in the management of economic and social processes. They are mainly used to determine the rational proportions in the development of the economy, changes in the growth rates of individual industries for a specific period. Financial planning and forecasting are one of the main elements of the financial mechanism.

Justification of financial indicators, planned financial transactions and the effectiveness of many economic decisions are achieved in the process of financial planning and forecasting. These two very close concepts in the economic literature and in practice are often identified.

In fact, financial forecasting should precede planning and assess a variety of options (accordingly, determine the possibilities of managing the movement of financial resources at the macro and micro levels).

Through financial planning, the forecasts are concretized, specific ways, indicators, interrelated tasks, the sequence of their implementation, as well as methods that contribute to the achievement of the chosen goal are determined.

Financial forecasting is a prediction of the possible financial position of the state or a business entity, substantiation of the indicators of financial plans.

Forecasts can be medium-term (5-10 years) and long-term (more than 10 years)

Financial forecasting precedes the stage of drawing up financial plans, develops the concept of financial policy for a certain period of development of society.

The purpose of financial forecasting is to determine the actually possible volume of financial resources, sources of formation and their use in the forecast period.

Forecasts allow the bodies of the financial system to outline different options for the development and improvement of the financial system, forms and methods of implementing financial policy.

Financial planning is a scientific process of justifying the movement of financial resources and corresponding financial relations for a certain period.

The object of financial planning is financial resources that are created in the process of distribution and redistribution of GDP, and the final result is the preparation of financial plans, ranging from the estimates of a separate institution to the consolidated financial balance of the state. At the same time, not only the movement of resources for the formation and use of various funds of funds is determined, but also the financial relations that mediate them and the resulting value proportions.

Financial planning is a purposeful activity of the state, individual links and economic entities to substantiate the effectiveness of economic and social decisions, taking into account their provision with sources of funding, optimize targets and achieve positive final results.

Financial planning should be based on the knowledge of the objective laws of the development of society, trends in the movement of financial resources, the study of the initial base of the effectiveness of previously conducted measures and financial transactions.

Financial plans are plans for the formation, distribution and use of financial resources. Financial plans make up all the links of the financial system, and the form of the financial plan, the composition of its indicators reflect the specifics of the corresponding link in the financial system. Thus, enterprises and organizations operating on a commercial basis make up balances of income and expenses; institutions carrying out non-commercial activities - estimates; insurance companies, public associations and cooperative organizations - financial plans; public authorities - budgets of different levels.

All financial plans are divided into two groups - consolidated and individual. In turn, consolidated financial plans are divided into national plans, plans of individual economic associations (industrial and financial groups, concerns, associations, etc.) and territorial ones. Individual - these are financial plans of individual business structures.

The classification of types of financial planning is presented in Table 1.

Table 1. Classification of types of financial planning

Classification recognition	Types of financial planning
Horizon (level) planning	Strategic Tactical Operational
By the level of the structural hierarchy of the planning object	National planning Municipal and regional planning General planning Planning the activities of business units, divisions
Benefits of development of financial plans	Sliding planning Periodic planning
Planning	Targeted planning Planning activities Resource planning
By planning horizon	Long-term Medium Short-term
By the stage of detailing the planning solutions	AGGREGATED DETAILED
By the degree of centralization of plan functions	Centralized Decentralized
Obligation to fulfill planned tasks	Directive, Indicative

Finnish planning according to the planning horizon:

1.strategic (long-term), for a period of 3 to 5 years and more;

2.Tactical (medium-term), for a period from 1 to 3 years;

3.operative or current (short-term), for up to 1 year.

Strategicheskoe planirovanie - IT nabor deystvy and resheny, predprinyatyh rukovodstvom, kotorye vedut to razrabotke spetsificheskih strategy, toest detalnyh, vsestoronnih, kompleksnyh planov, prednaznachennyh for obespecheniya osuschestvleniya mission organizatsii and dostizheniya ee dolgovremennyh tseley.

Tactical planning should be linked to the tactical goals of the planning object: state, region, industry or enterprise.

Operational or current planning clarifies the tasks of the current annual plan for shorter periods of time (month, decade, shift, hour) and for individual production units: workshop-site-team-workplace. Such a plan serves as a means of ensuring a rhythmic output of products and uniform work of the enterprise and brings the planned task to the immediate performers - workers.

By the level of the structural hierarchy of the planning object, there are the following types of financial planning:

nationwide planning - planning at the state level: budget plans, plans for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, etc.

Municipal and regional planning - planning at the regional level.

General planning - planning at the level of an individual enterprise or organization.

Planning the activities of business units, divisions - planning at the level of a separate division of the organization.

Directiveplanning characterized by the obligatory acceptance and implementation of planned targets set by the superior organization for subordinate enterprises. Directive planning permeated all levels of the system of socialist central planning (enterprises, industries, regions, the economy as a whole), fettered the initiative of enterprises. In a market economy, directive planning is used at the enterprise level in developing their current plans.

Indicativeplanning - it is a form of state regulation of production through the regulation of prices and tariffs, tax rates, bank interest rates for loans, minimum wages and other indicators. The tasks of the indicative plan are called indicators. Indicators - these are parameters that characterize the state and directions of economic development, developed by government bodies. The indicative plan may include mandatory tasks, but their number is very limited. Therefore, in general, the plan is of a guiding, recommendatory nature. With regard to enterprises (organizations), indicative planning is often used in the development of long-term plans.

It is necessary to distinguish between long-term planning, forecasting, strategic planning, tactical planning and business planning, which are interconnected, form a single system and at the same time perform various functions and can be applied independently. As noted above, promisingplanning based on forecasting.

Forecasting is the basis, the foundation of long-term planning and, in contrast to it, is based on foresight, built on economic and mathematical, probabilistic and at the same time scientifically grounded analysis of the prospects for the development of an enterprise in the foreseeable future.

The general algorithm consists of the following successive, interrelated steps shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3. Algorithm of financial planning

All the presented stages of financial planning should be consistently implemented in order to draw up a high-quality financial plan, both at the national level and at the level of an individual enterprise.

1.3 Methods of financial forecasting and planning

The scheduling system of financial activity is included in the development of a complex of planned assignments for the financial support of basic operating functions The main form of such a planned financial assignment is the budget. The planning of financial indicators, and in particular, the cost of the organization is carried out by means of certain methods.

MeTodyplanirovaniya- these are specific methods and techniques for calculating indicators. When planning the costs of the organization, different methods can be used.

Ramidetno- analiticheskymeTod- it is included in the fact that the basis for the analysis of the achieved value of the financial indicator, taken for the base, and the index of its change in the schedule of this calculation This method of planning is widely used in those cases when there are no technical and economic standards, and the relationship between the parameters can be set. This method is based on an expert assessment.

The calculation-analytical method is widely used when planning the amount of profit and income, determining the amount of deductions from the profit in the funds of accumulation, useable profitability, profitability

BalaNSooutmeTod- is included in the fact that by building up the balances, the linking of the available financial resources and the actual need in them is achieved. The balancing method is used, first of all, when planning the distribution of profits and other financial resources, planning the need for the availability of funds in finance

MeTodoptimizationsplanooutReNSeniy- are included in the development of several options for planned calculations so that you can choose the most optimal one. In this case, different selection criteria can be applied: minimum of the given costs; the maximum of the given profit; minimum capital investment at the highest efficiency of the result; minimum current costs; minimum time for capital turnover, i.e. acceleration of the speed of funds; the maximum income per ruble of the invested capital; the maximum profit per ruble of the invested capital; the maximum preservation of financial resources, i.e. minimum financial losses).

Ekonomicko-maTematichescoemodelireovanore- is included in the fact that it will allow to find a quantitative expression of the relationship between financial indicators and factors that define them. This connection is expressed through the economic and mathematical model. The economic-mathematical model provides a precise mathematical description of the economic process, i.e. Description of the factors characterizing the structure and regularity of changes in this economic phenomenon with the help of mathematical symbols and techniques. The model includes only basic factors. The model can be built by functional or correlation communication.

BudgetetnymeTod (budgeteshooting rangeovanore). For ustroystva sistemy analiza and planirovaniya denezhnyh potokov in organizatsii, adekvatnoy trebovaniyam rynochnyh uslovy, rekomenduetsya sozdanie sovremennoy sistemy upravleniya finansami, osnovannoy nA razrabotke and kontrole ispolneniya ierarhicheskoy sistemy byudzhetov organizatsii.

The system of budgets will allow you to establish a rigid current and operational control for the flow and consumption of funds, to create real conditions for the optimization of the efficiency

Takim obrazom, nesmotrya nA verily, chto sistema finansovogo planirovaniya orientirovana nA reshenie kratkosrochnyh and tekuschih zadach, reshaemyh organizatsiey, razrabotka strategii ego upswing pozvolyaet ne tolkoopredelit orientiry etogo upswing, Nr and dobitsya ponimaniya obschnosti zadach rabotnikami razlichnyh organizatsii services ustranit ogranicheniya nA vzaimodeystvie mezhdu them , especially for the solution of key problems, to stimulate information exchange between the structural divisions of the organization.

FinaNSooutNSognos- this is a scientific prerequisite for the management of finances. The financial forecast differs from a simple prediction of a future situation in that the forecast is based on one or several hypothetical assumptions. He answers the question: "What can happen, if.?"

In countries with a developed market economy, financial forecast is used as a method of implementing financial policy. Economic and financial forecasts are developed based on the baseline data for the past periods in compliance with the rules of maintaining national accounts.

MeTodryognozirovaniya can be divided into three large groups:

1. MeTodyexpemercenariesocenoTo, which provide a multi-stage survey of experts on special circuits and the processing of the obtained results with the help of a toolkit of economic efficiency. This is the most simple and fairly popular methods, the history of which counts one millennium. The application of these methods in practice, as a rule, is included in the use of experience and knowledge of the trade, financial, production leaders of the organization. As a rule, this ensures that decision making is as simple and quick as possible. The disadvantage is a decrease or complete absence of personal responsibility for the forecast.

2. StoNSastitcheskiemeTody, a presumed probable character as a forecast, as well as the very connection between the investigated indices. The probability of receiving an accurate forecast grows with an increase in the number of empirical data. These methods take the leading place from the position of formalized forecasting and essentially vary according to the complexity of the algorithms used. The most simple example is the study of trends in the volume of sales with the help of an analysis of the growth rates of the indicators of sales. The forecasting results obtained by statistical methods are susceptible to the influence of random data fluctuations, which can sometimes lead to serious calculations.

3. DeTerminirovannaemeTody, presumably the presence of functional or rigidly deterministic connections, when each value of a factor recognition is fully justified As an example, it is possible to cite the dependencies realized in the framework of the well-known model of the factor analysis of the DuPont company. Ispolzuya this model and in podstavlyaya nee prognoznye znacheniya razlichnyh faktorov, naprimer, Revenue From realizatsii, oborachivaemosti aktivov, stepeni finansovoy zavisimosti and other mozhno rasschitat prognoznoe znachenieodnogo of osnovnyh pokazateley effektivnosti - koeffitsienta rentabelnosti sobstvennogo kapitala.

It is impossible not to mention the general group of methods based on the development of dynamic simulation models of organizations. Such models include data on planned purchases of materials and accessories, production and sales volumes, structure of products, inventory, etc. The processing of this information in the framework of a single financial model will allow to estimate the predicted financial state of the organization with a very high degree of efficiency. Really, this kind of model can be built only with the use of personal computers, which will allow you to quickly produce a huge amount of unnecessary computations. Odnako these metody slozhny and trebuyut napisaniya otdelnogo napisaniya raboty, poskolku dolzhny imet pod soboy gorazdo shirokoe informatsionnoeobespechenie bolee chem buhgalterskaya otchetnost organizatsii chto delaet nevozmozhnym their primenenie vneshnimi analitikami.

2. Perfection of financial forecasting and planning in Russia at a modern stage

2.1 Planning of incomes and expenditures of budgets in the Russian Federation

Let us analyze the planned and actual indicators of the main items of income and expenditure of the budget of the Russian Federation for 2013 - 2016, as well as the forecast for 2017 and 2018 on a project basis (table 2)

Table 2. Main characteristics of the federal budget

Off 2013 plan / actual

Off 2014 plan / fact

Off 2015 plan / actual

RUB bln

RUB bln

RUB bln

Deficit (- /) surplus (+)

From the presented table, you can see that the planned and actual data differ over the entire study period.

The data on the planned income is higher than the actual income received by the budgetary system. The gap is 2 to 3%.

The largest deviation is noticeable in the item of oil and gas revenues, which reaches - 18.5% in 2015. This trend is due to the dynamics of world oil prices and the geopolitical situation in the world economy.

It can be noted that the federal budget in 2015 was planned with a deficit of 1,961 billion rubles, however, as a result of a shortfall in revenues in the amount of 290 billion rubles and an excess of the planned level of expenditures by 683 billion rubles. the budget deficit in 2016 amounted to RUB 3,034 billion.

A noticeable increase in non-oil and gas revenues in 2016 (to the level of 10.4% of GDP) is a consequence of the expected receipt of additional revenues from the partial privatization of Rosneft.

The volume of receipts for all items of non-oil and gas revenues (except for import duties, the reduction of which is assumed at the level of 0.1 pp of GDP), in 2017-2019 are projected at or above their 2016 estimate (approximately 0.1 pp of GDP). The most noticeable increase in revenues is expected for VAT (on goods sold in the Russian Federation): +0.4 pp of GDP by 2019 (Table 3).

Table 3. Federal budget revenues in 2013-2016

Off 2013 plan / actual

Off 2014 plan / fact

Off 2015 plan / actual

RUB bln

RUB bln

RUB bln

export duties

So, the deviation of the planned indicators of federal budget revenues from the actual ones is noticeable in all items.

The largest deviation is noticeable for oil and gas revenues, in particular for export duties, it reaches 27.52% in 2015.

The total deviation in income was 290 billion rubles. or 2.12%

The state received less than 1,085 billion rubles from oil and gas revenues, which is due to global fluctuations in prices for oil and oil products.

The greatest deviation of planned revenues from actual ones is observed in 2015, which indicates a decrease in the accuracy of forecast data and the quality of breeding of federal budget revenues.

The sustainability of non-oil and gas tax revenues, as well as partial compensation for the drop in oil and gas revenues in the medium term, will be supported by measures to mobilize additional revenues to the budget. The most significant measures include:

1) planned for 2018-2020. completion of the "tax maneuver", which will entail an increase in the rates on mineral extraction tax on oil and oil products with the simultaneous abolition of export duties on them and changes in the system of levying excise taxes on oil products. Also, in a pilot mode, it is planned to start introducing the income added tax (AIT). In general, in the field of taxation of oil and gas production in the medium term, it is planned to balance the level of tax burden on the oil and gas industry;

2) an increase in the minimum standard for dividends on state shares and state-owned companies - from 25 to 50%;

3) creation of a unified system of administration of budgetary system revenues through the introduction of a unified methodological base. This initiative is expected to lead to increased revenue collection and reduce the administrative burden.

However, in our opinion, the expected effects from the implementation of the latter measure are clearly overestimated. First, the expected improvement in the quality of import administration due to the integration of information systems (IS) of the Federal Customs Service and the Federal Tax Service may increase the tax base of VAT on imports, however, given that most of the tax withheld during customs declaration is subsequently deducted for "internal" VAT , the overall effect on the revenue of this tax may be much more modest.

Second, all other things being equal, an increase in customs value will lead to an increase in customs duties, which in turn will increase suppliers' costs and cause either an increase in prices (inflation) or a decrease in profits (shortfall in income from profit tax).

Thirdly, with regard to ASK VAT-2 (information system of the Federal Tax Service), introduced in 2015, it identifies those companies that do not show implementation, although they carry out procurement operations, thereby narrowing the sample of control and auditing activities of the Federal Tax Service. The fiscal effect in 2015 was estimated at 150 billion rubles. can manifest itself later in the form of significant additional annual income.

Federal budget expenditures for 2017-2019 formed within the framework of budgetary rules. In the medium term, it is planned to resume the implementation of the mechanism of fiscal rules in order to weaken the sensitivity of the budget system to the volatility of world oil prices. According to preliminary projections, the new version of the budget rules will start to operate in full from 2020, while 2017-2019. declared a transitional period because of the need to avoid shrinking expenditures too quickly to the level envisaged by the concept of new budget rules.

In accordance with the proposals of the Ministry of Finance of Russia, the maximum volume of federal budget expenditures is planned to be determined from 2020 as the sum of three components:

1) the base volume of oil and gas revenues, calculated at the base oil price at a constant level of $ 40 / bbl. the Urals brand and the basic exchange rate of the ruble;

2) the volume of non-oil and gas revenues, calculated in accordance with the basic version of the medium-term forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia;

3) debt service costs. At the same time, in the case when the forecast volume of the Reserve Fund as of January 1 of the first year of the planning period falls below the level of 5% of GDP, the maximum volume of use of the Reserve Fund for the next budgetary year cannot exceed 1% of GDP and, based on this, the maximum volume of expenses.

Thus, in the period under review, federal budget expenditures are reduced both in nominal terms by almost 0.5 trillion rubles. to the level of 2016, and in terms of GDP shares - by almost 4 p.p. (from 19.8% of GDP in 2016 to 16.1% in 2019).

It is also important to take into account not only the total volumes, but also the structure of federal budget expenditures, which has deteriorated in recent years. As a result, spending grew in only three areas, all of which are not productive - national defense, social policy, debt service. Among the countries not at war, Russia is one of the record holders in terms of defense spending. Pension spending is growing steadily, and without a pension reform, this trend is unlikely to change in the coming years.

Table 4. Federal budget expenditures by items of functional classification for 2016-2019.

Off 2013 plan / actual

Off 2014 plan / fact

Off 2015 plan / actual

Total expenses

General questions

Nat. defense

Nat. without. and law enforcement. active

Nat. economy

Protection of the environs Wednesday

Cult. and kin-graphy

Health.

Social politics

FC and sports

public debt

Interbudgetary transfers

In general, planning budget expenditures is more accurate than planning its revenues; the maximum deviation in the total amount of expenditures was recorded in 2015 at the level of 5%. The maximum deviation of planned costs from actually incurred by item of expenditure is noticeable in 2015.

The growth of federal budget expenditures in 2015 was due to the excess of actual expenditures over the planned ones under such items as:

national defense by 708 billion rubles;

social policy - 366 billion rubles;

public debt service - 121 billion rubles.

Thus, it can be concluded that the financial planning and forecasting system deteriorated in 2015 compared to 2013 and 2014.

2.2 Tax planning at an enterprise (organization) in the Russian Federation

Tax planning plays an essential role in the activity of any commercial enterprise. It is included in the choice of the most profitable taxation scheme for the enterprise and in the development and implementation of various legal schemes for the reduction of tax deductions, due to the application of the methods of construction of financial benefits.

Let's choose the most optimal tax regime using the example of an enterprise.

LLC "Stroyinvest" is currently under the general taxation system. After the income tax has been paid, the owner of Stroyinvest LLC retains the net profit.

Net profit of OOO Stroyinvest for the analyzed period increased by 57 thousand rubles. or 14.5%.

Let us consider the profitability of the option of transition of Stroyinvest LLC from the general taxation system (OSN) to the simplified taxation system (STS). It should be noted that limited liability companies have every right to apply the simplified tax system, subject to all the conditions that are established by Chapter 26.2 of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation.

We will carry out tax planning procedures, which consist in determining, on an alternative basis, such taxation conditions that will form the maximum positive financial result.

Let's analyze the optimization of the company's tax liabilities when switching to the simplified tax system.

As already noted, Stroyinvest LLC, being on the general taxation system, is a payer of the following taxes: income tax, corporate property tax, value added tax, contributions to compulsory pension (social, medical) insurance, personal income tax (as a tax agent), transport and land taxes, since the balance of the enterprise includes vehicles and a land plot under the office building.

Consider the amount of taxes under the general taxation system that were paid by Stroyinvest LLC in 2015.

Accrued:

income tax - 141 thousand rubles;

insurance contributions to off-budget funds (18,008 thousand rubles x 18 people x 12 months) = 3889.7 thousand rubles. x 30% = 1166.9 thousand rubles;

VAT - RUB 1,241 thousand;

property tax, transport and land taxes are not charged, because there is no tax base, the enterprise leases all equipment.

Total, the amount of taxes of OOO Stroyinvest under the general taxation system amounted to 2,548.9 thousand rubles. thousand roubles. (141 + 1166.9 + 1241).

When switching to the simplified tax system, Stroyinvest LLC will pay a single tax, which will replace income tax, corporate property tax, VAT, transport and land taxes.

The company must pay contributions to compulsory pension (social, medical) insurance under the simplified tax system, only the rates under this tax regime are 20% of the payroll, and the tariffs at which insurance premiums are payable are: 20 percent - to the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation, 0 percent - to the FSS , 0 percent - in the MHIF.

Let's calculate the single tax under the simplified tax system, if the object of taxation is income, the tax rate is 6%.

So, the income of the organization for 2015 amounted to 6,653 thousand rubles.

The amount of the single tax under the simplified taxation system is 6653 x 6% = 399.1 thousand rubles. rub.

Contributions to off-budget funds 20% of the payroll - 711.9 thousand rubles. (3889.7 x 20%).

The amount of tax can be reduced by the amount of insurance contributions to the Pension Fund and for the payment of benefits for temporary disability, but not more than 50%.

We will proceed from the fact that no benefits for temporary incapacity for work were paid for this period, i.e. we do not reduce the tax amount and take it into account to the maximum. Then Stroyinvest LLC will have to pay to the budget: 399.1 + 711.9 = 1 111 thousand. rub.

We will calculate the single tax under the simplified tax system for the object of taxation - "income minus expenses", the tax rate is 15%.

With income of 6,653 thousand rubles, and expenses - 6,000 thousand rubles, we calculate and deduct the amount of insurance premiums and get 5288.1 thousand rubles. (6000 - 711.9).

We deduct the received expenses from income: 6653 - 5288.1 = 1364.9 thousand rubles.

Contributions to off-budget funds are 20% of the payroll - 711.9 thousand rubles.

The amount of the single tax under this taxation regime is 1364.9 x 15% = 204.7 thousand rubles.

The resulting tax amount (204.7 thousand rubles) is comparable to the minimum tax equal to 1% of income.

In this case, it will amount to 6653 x 1% = 66.53 thousand rubles.

The largest of these amounts is paid to the budget. In our case, the amount to be paid will be 204.7 thousand rubles.

Total tax payments 204.7 + 711.9 = 916.6 thousand rubles.

The results of comparing the tax burden in the context of the general and simplified taxation system are shown in the table ...

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INTRODUCTION

Financial forecasting is one of the most important stages of financial planning. The purpose of financial forecasting is to link material and financial and cost proportions in the economy in the future; assessment of the estimated volume of financial resources; identification of options for financial support; identification of possible deviations from the accepted designs.
Financial forecasting is carried out at three levels of the economy: national, territorial, and economic entities. At the national level, calculations are made, with the help of which the financial resources of the country are formed, the directions of their development are determined, and the consolidated financial balance of the state is drawn up. Calculations allow for more correct development of the economic and financial policy of the state. Financial forecasting is linked to the achievements of scientific and technological progress, forecasts of changes in resources, prices, etc.
The main feature of financial forecasting is variance, which allows the executive body to more accurately assess the problem, choose the optimal solution, and foresee the consequences of the decisions made. Financial forecasting is carried out in a similar manner at other territorial levels (constituent entities of the Russian Federation, municipalities).

1. CONCEPT AND ESSENCE OF FINANCIAL FORECASTING
1.1. The concept and tasks of financial forecasting
Financial forecasting is a study of specific prospects for the development of finance of business entities and government entities in the future, a scientifically grounded assumption about the volumes and directions of use of financial resources for the future.
Financial forecasting reveals the expected in the future picture of the state of financial resources and the need for them, possible options for carrying out financial activities and is a prerequisite for financial planning. The main goal of financial forecasting, carried out to scientifically substantiate the indicators of financial plans and contributing to the development of a concept for the development of finance for the forecast period, is the assessment of the estimated volume of financial resources and the determination of preferred options for financial support for the activities of business entities, state authorities and local governments.
Financial forecasting tasks are:
- coordination of material and financial and cost proportions at the macro and micro levels for the future; - determination of the sources of formation and the volume of financial resources of business entities and government entities for the forecast period;
- substantiation of the directions of the use of financial resources by business entities and government entities for the forecast period based on the analysis of trends and dynamics of financial indicators, taking into account the internal and external factors affecting them; - determination and assessment of the financial consequences of decisions taken by public authorities and local governments, business entities.
Financial forecasting is carried out by developing various options for the development of an organization, a separate administrative-territorial unit, the country as a whole, their analysis and justification, an assessment of the possible degree of achievement of certain goals, depending on the nature of the actions of the planning subjects. This is achieved by two different methodological approaches:
1) within the framework of the first approach, forecasting is carried out from the present to the future on the basis of established cause-and-effect relationships;
2) in the second approach, forecasting consists in determining the future goal and guidelines for movement from the future to ...